New research on Dublin’s apartment supply and rental market from commercial real estate company JLL reveals a growing shortfall in housing delivery.
The research shows that Dublin is facing a shortfall of more than 5,400 apartments this year, with just 9,685 completions forecast compared to an estimated annual requirement of at least 15,100.
Today’s report forecasts 10,304 completions for next year. While this would mark an increase on both 2025 and 2026, it still leaves Dublin almost 4,800 apartments short of its annual need.
The report also notes that apartment starts in Dublin fell from 18,161 in 2024 to 3,625 in 2025 – a drop of 80% – after developers rushed to begin work before the development levy waiver closed at the end of 2024.
Starts have picked up this year, with 7,732 in the first nine months, more than double the total for all of 2025, today’s research shows.
But that still means that the annualised pace is around 7% below the 2021 to 2024 average, and JLL expects completions to ease off towards 2028 as the waiver-era pipeline is delivered.
The 19,233 apartments identified as under construction in JLL’s May 2026 analysis would cover only about 1.3 years of demand, it added.
JLL points to viability as one of the main barriers to new supply, with construction costs, land pricing and financing costs determining which projects go ahead.
Today’s report also shows that investment is returning to the apartment market.
Investment in Ireland’s living sector, including purpose-built student accommodation, reached €739m so far this year, above the €601m recorded in all of 2025 and €461m in 2024, as institutional investors come back to the market.
Niall Gunne, Senior Director of Capital Markets at JLL Ireland, said the forecast rise in completions is welcome, although it risks masking a much bigger problem.
“Much of that supply comes from developments started during the 2024 surge, when the levy waiver helped make projects financially viable,” Mr Gunne said.
“The key issue is viability. Capital is returning to the residential sector, although investor appetite alone won’t close the housing gap if developments don’t make financial sense to build,” he said.
“Unless we can maintain a consistent pipeline of viable projects, we risk another slowdown in housing delivery towards 2028, at a time when Dublin needs a sustained increase in supply,” he cautioned.
