As another round of tensions between Washington and Brussels flares up, countries that rely heavily on energy imports might be hit again.
US President Donald Trump has been pressuring Europe to release a good chunk of its strategic diesel reserves – or face a 90-day ban on diesel exports.
According to the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, only 3.3% of Ireland’s diesel imports came from the US in 2025.
Most of Ireland’s diesel comes from the Netherlands and the UK, but any EU-wide ban is likely to hurt Ireland as well.
“If the volume of any commodity available to the market goes down, the price that the market has to pay goes up”, Senior Lecturer at University College Cork Dr Paul Deane told RTÉ’s Morning Ireland.
“I think Ireland could be exposed to indirect effects where we’re competing for diesel on a global marketplace, but unfortunately at a higher price.”
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Diesel prices here remained well over €2 a litre for weeks.
Prices have surged globally due to supply disruptions caused by the US-Iran war and reduced exports from Russia, where refineries have been heavily targeted by Ukraine.
Refining capacity is “a big deal” for Ireland, Dr Deane noted.
“Refineries are important in this conversation because oil in its original state is useless. It must be turned into something useful… We need roughly three barrels of oil to make one barrel of diesel.”
“The refinery in Cork produces roughly one third of our diesel needs. So, Ireland is heavily dependent on importing diesel from third-party countries”.
Europe’s dependency on the US diesel has been growing significantly – up 35% in 2026 compared to last year.
Washington argues that the release by Germany and France would help lower global prices – and most importantly in the US, before the midterm elections.
Americans are now paying 70% more for diesel than before the US-Iran war.
“We just want to make sure that American workers and farmers are getting the diesel they need at a price that they can manage. And part of that is getting those supplies to market,” said US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
Europe might be reluctant to release 40% of its stockpiles, which is what Donald Trump has reportedly requested.
Unlike the US, it relies on imports – and replenishing those reserves later could be very expensive for European taxpayers.
Analysts believe that a ban on exporting diesel would hurt the US as well.
“Oil companies will be hopping mad because what they will get for diesel in the US, the price will fall dramatically, so the profits will be down. They won’t like it,” Adjunct Professor of Economics at Trinity College Dublin John Fitzgerald explained.
Some parts of the US also rely on imported diesel and would likely be hit if global supplies are affected.
For Ireland, diesel is a crucial fuel, that keeps the economy moving, particularly when it comes to transporting heavy goods.
Phasing it out and thereby reducing dependency would take “decades”, according to experts.
“We have roughly two million cars in Ireland. A lot of those use diesel. We’re replacing about 100,000 cars per year, so it’s going to take at least two decades”.
For now, Ireland’s fuel costs will remain closely linked to market moves and geopolitical tensions.
