Met Éireann has said Ireland could have a greater chance of wetter and windier weather over the coming months as the El Niño effect developing over the Pacific Ocean continues to strengthen.
El Niño is a powerful natural climate phenomenon that pushes up global temperatures, adding to the effects of human-driven climate change.
The weather pattern warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, triggering worldwide changes in winds, temperatures and rainfall.
Met Éireann says this could be the strongest El Niño in more than 100 years.
The natural warming of sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific is forecast to reach more than 3C in the coming months.
This creates a heightened risk of drought in areas including southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe, including Ireland, is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions.
El Niño occurs on average every two to seven years.
“The sea surface temperatures are well above average and this increases the moisture content in the atmosphere for any low pressure systems and rainy weather coming towards us which can increase the intensity of any rainfall events,” Climatologist at Met Éireann Paul Moore said.
Central America is in the throes of a severe drought driven by El Niño.
The Panama Canal which handles about 5% of global maritime trade linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans said it will reduce the number of ships passing through next month due to falling water levels.
From 3 September, the number of vessels allowed through the canal each day will be reduced due to a lack of rain, the Panama Canal Authority said.
As global temperatures are pushed up, forecasters say next year could be the hottest on record.
“Globally human-caused climate change has already warmed the atmosphere by 1.4 degrees approximately and this El Niño will bump that up again next year making 2027 likely the warmest year on record surpassing 2024 which is currently the warmest year on record,” Mr Moore said.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at Britain’s national weather agency told the BBC: “We are expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees – that is unheard of in modern climate records.”
El Niño occurs when water temperatures rise at least 0.5C above the baseline. While it is part of a natural cycle, scientists agree climate change increases its impacts.
A record El Niño would be “adding to the stresses of climate change” following a summer of heatwaves across Europe, the Met Office said in a blog.
As the Panama Canal is set to reduce shipping volumes from next month because of a drought fueled by the El Niño phenomenon, volumes will go from 36 ships currently, then lowered to 34, falling further to 32 from 15 September, the agency said.
Central America is in the throes of a severe drought driven by El Niño ,a weather pattern that warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, triggering worldwide changes in winds, atmospheric pressure and rainfall.
The Panama Canal handles around 40% of US container traffic.
It is fed by rainwater that collects in two artificial lakes.
The canal operator said that “lower than forecast rainfall in the canal’s watershed” called for measures to bolster the “long-term sustainability” of the waterway.
It has already implemented other water conservation measures, such as lowering the maximum draft – the vessel’s depth in the water – for the largest ships.
On Wednesday, the government of Honduras placed 80% of that Central American country on drought alert.
Temperatures in the Pacific region are currently running about 2.6C above a rolling 30-year average, according to the Climate Brink dashboard based on data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The dashboard also aggregates forecasts that put El Niño on course to peak at a 3.9C anomaly this November – well above a 3C anomaly detected in 2015.
We need your consent to load this rte-player contentWe use rte-player to manage extra content that can set cookies on your device and collect data about your activity. Please review their details and accept them to load the content.Manage Preferences
