Updated / Friday, 19 Jun 2026 18:30
Brent crude fell today after Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, easing concerns over disruptions to Middle East oil supplies and raising hopes of broader de-escalation involving the US and Iran.
Brent crude futures were up 44 cents, or 0.5%, at $80.29 a barrel this evening, and were heading for a weekly decline of 9.5%.
The front-month July contract for US West Texas Intermediate crude, which expires on Monday, rose 69 cents, or 0.9%, to $76.54 a barrel, on track to fall nearly 10% on the week.
The more actively traded August contract was down 61 cents at $75.24 a barrel.
Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire which began today, a senior US official told Reuters.
“We understand that after the exchange of fire earlier today, Israel and Hezbollah are now in a ceasefire,” the official said.
“I see limited downside from here. Prices may soften slightly, but likely won’t revisit earlier levels since reserves are largely depleted and need replenishment with fresh crude,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com.
Earlier, Switzerland had said US talks with Iranian negotiators on a pact to end the Middle East conflict would not take place on Friday, as Vice President JD Vance dropped his travel plans, adding to uncertainty over the prospects for a lasting truce.
“It lays bare the rocky road that lies ahead to achieve a full and uninterrupted resumption of oil flow through the Strait,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates.
“Undoubtedly, headlines around the extended ceasefire agreement will continue to shape sentiment,” the analyst added.
Both benchmarks hit their lowest since the early days of the conflict yesterday as several tankers, including three Saudi-flagged vessels carrying 6 million barrels of crude, sailed through the strait hours after the US and Iranian presidents signed an interim deal to end their war.
Analysts expect the deal to release more than 85 million barrels of oil stranded in the Middle East Gulf into global markets. The agreement also includes the lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil, which would add more supply.
Around 20% of global oil and LNG supply transits Hormuz, but recovery in flows and production after the US-Iran deal could take several months.
Citi said its base case, with a 60% probability, sees sustained normalisation in flows, with oil markets moving into surplus and prices trending lower over the next six to 12 months to around $60 to $65 a barrel by the first quarter of 2027.
Commerzbank said oil supply should gradually recover, lowering its Brent forecast to $80 a barrel by the end of the year from $85, while expecting prices to remain above pre-war levels for most of the coming year.
Iraq’s oilfields are ready to resume production and output will gradually return to normal, restoring previous rates, Oil Minister Basim Mohammed said.
On the demand front, world demand will rise to 113.3 million bpd in 2030 from 105.1 million barrels a day in 2025, OPEC said in its 2026 World Oil Outlook.
