January and February’s exchequer figures have been pretty much in line with 2025 so far.
Later today when the March figures are published it is likely the figures will be analysed from a quarterly perspective, according to Brendan Murphy, Tax Partner at Baker Tilly Ireland.
Speaking on RTÉ’s Morning Ireland, Mr Murphy said the figures are up by 1% overall, on a par with 2025, which is positive because last year was another record year.
“There’s always the fear that perhaps corporate tax receipts might dip as we’ve seen lots of speculation in the news about the fear around the tariffs and how that might drop but that’s not happening yet so that’s really positive and we hope that we see the same today,” he said.
Of particular interest today will be corporation tax receipts as Apple has a September year end which means their six month period for preliminary tax falls in March.
Mr Murphy explained this payment will likely be broadly in line with last year as you can base preliminary tax on the prior year.
“I think all in all, corporate tax receipts would probably see them falling in around the same as last year,” said Mr Murphy.
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January was the first VAT period in the year that was slightly above last year.
“We’d be hoping to still see that again on a par or ahead of last year, which will show confidence in consumer spending,” he said. “Obviously, the VAT receipts are important, we need to keep spending up at one sense, even though there is caution around spending and price inflation.”
Mr Murphy said it will be too early to see the direct impact of government measures in terms of excise receipts on fuel.
“It’s such a small percentage of the overall exchequer figures when you look at income tax and corporate tax receipts being in the kind of tens of billions, the excise duties never really are at the same material impact, but certainly we would expect a bounce and an increase in them,” he commented.
