{"id":9359,"date":"2025-05-09T22:19:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-10T02:19:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/05\/09\/sugar-prices-see-support-as-crude-oil-rallies\/"},"modified":"2025-05-09T22:19:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-10T02:19:00","slug":"sugar-prices-see-support-as-crude-oil-rallies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/05\/09\/sugar-prices-see-support-as-crude-oil-rallies\/","title":{"rendered":"Sugar Prices See Support as Crude Oil Rallies"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) Friday closed up +0.28 (+1.60%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) closed up +5.00 (+1.01%).<\/p>\n<p>Sugar prices on Friday added to Thursday\u2019s gains and posted 1-week highs. \u00a0 Strength in crude prices on Friday boosted sugar prices after WTI crude oil (CLM25) rose more than +1% to a 1-1\/2 week high. \u00a0Higher crude prices benefit ethanol and could prompt the world\u2019s sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus curbing sugar supplies. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-SDc\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-SDc')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-SDc');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Last Friday, July NY sugar posted a 3-3\/4 year nearest-futures low, and on Wednesday, London sugar fell to a 3-1\/2 month low on the outlook for higher Brazil sugar production. \u00a0Last Wednesday, Unica reported that Brazil Center-South sugar production for the first half of April rose +1.3% y\/y to 731,000 MT. \u00a0Last Wednesday\u2019s report from Unica is the first report for the 2025\/26 season. \u00a0Last Tuesday, Conab forecasted Brazil\u2019s 2025\/26 Brazil sugar production would climb +4.0% y\/y to 45.875 MMT. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Signs of larger global sugar output are negative for prices. \u00a0On Tuesday, the USDA\u2019s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that India\u2019s 2025\/26 sugar production would rise +26% y\/y to 35 MMT, citing favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. \u00a0On April 23, the USDA\u2019s FAS predicted that Brazil\u2019s 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +2.3% y\/y to 44.7 MMT from 43.7 MMT in the previous season. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for abundant rain in India that leads to a bumper sugar crop is undercutting sugar prices. \u00a0On April 15, India\u2019s Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. \u00a0India\u2019s monsoon season runs from June through September. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Also, on the negative side, consultant Datagro on March 12 projected that 2025\/26 Brazil Center-South sugar production would climb +6% y\/y to 42.4 MMT. \u00a0In addition, Green Pool Commodity Specialists on February 5 projected that the worldwide sugar market will shift to a surplus of +2.7 MMT in the 2025\/26 crop year from its estimate of a deficit of -3.7 MMT in 2024\/25.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-lIg\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-lIg')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-lIg');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>In a bearish factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing the restrictions placed on sugar exports in 2023. \u00a0India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. \u00a0India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022\/23 season to September 30 after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. \u00a0However, the ISMA projects that India\u2019s 2024\/25 sugar production will fall -17.5% y\/y to a 5-year low of 26.4 MMT. \u00a0Also, on April 17, the ISMA reported that India\u2019s sugar production from Oct 1-Apr 15 was 25.5 MMT, down -18% from the same period last year. \u00a0In addition, Indian Food Secretary Chopra said last Thursday that India\u2019s 2024\/25 sugar exports may only total 800,000 MT, below earlier expectations of 1 MMT.<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. \u00a0Last Friday, Thailand\u2019s Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand\u2019s 2024\/25 sugar production rose +14% y\/y to 10.00 MMT. \u00a0Thailand is the world\u2019s third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest sugar exporter.<\/p>\n<p>Signs of lower global sugar production are supportive of prices. \u00a0Unica reported on April 14 that the cumulative 2024\/25 Brazil Center-South sugar output through March fell by 5.3% y\/y to 40.169 MMT. \u00a0On March 12, \u00a0the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association cut its 2024\/25 India sugar production forecast to 26.4 MMT from a January forecast of 27.27 MMT, citing lower cane yields. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on March 6 raised its 2024\/25 global sugar deficit forecast to -4.88 MMT from a November forecast of -2.51 MMT, showing a tightening market from the 2023\/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. \u00a0The ISO also cut its 2024\/25 global sugar production forecast to 175.5 MMT from a November forecast of 179.1 MMT. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Drought and excessive heat last year caused fires in Brazil that damaged sugar crops in Brazil\u2019s top sugar-producing state of Sao Paulo. \u00a0Green Pool Commodity Specialists noted that as much as 5 MMT of sugar cane may have been lost due to the fires. \u00a0Last Thursday, Conab, Brazil\u2019s government crop forecasting agency, projected 2024\/25 Brazil sugar production to fall -3.4% y\/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-GQ4\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-GQ4')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-GQ4');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The USDA, in its bi-annual report released November 21, projected that global 2024\/25 sugar production would climb +1.5% y\/y to a record 186.619 MMT and that global 2024\/25 human sugar consumption would increase +1.2% y\/y to a record 179.63 MMT. \u00a0The USDA also forecasted that 2024\/25 global sugar ending stocks would decline -6.1% y\/y to 45.427 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><i>     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy          here. <\/i><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p> More news from Barchart <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Corn Bulls Have a Weather-Market Wild Card. How to Trade It.<\/li>\n<li>A New Storm Cloud Is Throwing Shade on Grain Markets. Here\u2019s What Could Bring Out the Sun.<\/li>\n<li>Will Sugar\u2019s Price Consolidation End?<\/li>\n<li>July Sugar Futures Just Hit a 3-Month Low. It May Be Time to Sell.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) Friday closed up +0.28 (+1.60%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) closed up +5.00 (+1.01%). Sugar prices on Friday added to Thursday\u2019s gains and posted 1-week highs. \u00a0 Strength in crude prices on Friday boosted sugar prices after WTI crude oil (CLM25) rose more than +1% to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9360,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9359","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9359","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9359"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9359\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9359"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9359"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9359"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}