{"id":876,"date":"2025-02-01T05:34:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-01T10:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/02\/01\/coffee-prices-post-record-highs-as-global-supplies-tighten\/"},"modified":"2025-02-01T05:34:00","modified_gmt":"2025-02-01T10:34:00","slug":"coffee-prices-post-record-highs-as-global-supplies-tighten","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/02\/01\/coffee-prices-post-record-highs-as-global-supplies-tighten\/","title":{"rendered":"Coffee Prices Post Record Highs as Global Supplies Tighten"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>March arabica coffee (KCH25) Friday closed up +4.45 (+1.19%), and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH25) closed down -16 (-0.28%).<\/p>\n<p>Coffee prices on Friday settled mixed, with arabica climbing to a new all-time nearest-futures high. \u00a0Global coffee supply fears underpin prices after Conab, Brazil&#8217;s government crop forecasting agency, forecasted Tuesday that Brazil&#8217;s 2025\/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y\/y to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags. \u00a0Also, Conab last Tuesday cut its 2024 Brazil coffee crop estimate by -1.1% to 54.2 million bags from a September estimate of 54.8 million bags.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-wXY\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-wXY')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-wXY');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Coffee prices gave up some of their gains Friday, with robusta falling back from a new record nearest-futures high after a rally in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 1-week high sparked long liquidation in coffee futures.<\/p>\n<p>Arabica coffee also has support from below-normal rainfall in Brazil after Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais received 26.5 mm of rain last week, or only 53% of the historical average. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The impact of dry El Nino weather last year may lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. \u00a0Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since last April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil's 2025\/26 arabica coffee crop. \u00a0Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden. \u00a0Also, Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer, is slowly recovering from the El Nino-spurred drought last year.<\/p>\n<p>Lingering global coffee supply concerns are supporting prices and fueling fund buying of coffee. \u00a0On December 17, Volcafe cut its 2025\/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil. \u00a0Volcafe projects a global 2025\/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024\/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.<\/p>\n<p>Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by reduced robusta production. \u00a0Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023\/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. \u00a0The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam's robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024\/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023\/24 season. \u00a0In addition, \u00a0Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported on January 10 that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y\/y to 1.35 MMT. \u00a0Conversely, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on December 3 raised its 2024\/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 28 million bags from an October estimate of 27 million bags. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-C9k\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-C9k')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-C9k');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>An increase in robusta coffee inventories is bearish for prices after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 3-3\/4 month high last Friday of 4,603 lots. \u00a0Meanwhile, \u00a0ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 2-1\/2 year high of 993,562 bags on January 6 but have since fallen back and dropped to a 2-1\/2 month low of 867,582 bags Friday. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>News of larger global coffee exports is bearish for prices. \u00a0On Tuesday, Conab reported that Brazil's 2024 coffee exports rose +28.8% y\/y to a record 50.5 million bags. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>In a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) recently said that 2023\/24 global coffee production climbed +5.8% y\/y to a record 178 million bags due to an exceptional off-biennial crop year. \u00a0ICO also said global 2023\/24 coffee consumption rose +2.2% y\/y to a record 177 million bags, resulting in a 1 million bag coffee surplus.<\/p>\n<div class=\"taboola-placeholder\">\n<div id=\"taboola-mid-article-thumbnails\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>                 <script type=\"text\/javascript\">                     !function (e, f, u) {                     e.async = 1;                     e.src = u; f.parentNode.insertBefore(e, f);                     }(document.createElement('script'), document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0], '\/\/cdn.taboola.com\/libtrc\/nasdaq-nasdaq\/loader.js');                     window._taboola = window._taboola || [];                     _taboola.push({                       mode: 'thumbnails-a-mid',                       container: 'taboola-mid-article-thumbnails',                       placement: 'Mid Article Thumbnails',                       target_type: 'mix'                     });                     _taboola.push({article:'auto', url:''});                 <\/script><\/p>\n<p>The USDA's biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. \u00a0The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024\/25 will increase +4.0% y\/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags. \u00a0The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024\/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023\/24. \u00a0Separately, the USDA's FAS on November 22 projected Brazil's 2024\/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below the USDA's previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. \u00a0The USDA's FAS projects Brazil's coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024\/25 season in June, down -26% y\/y.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><i>     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy          here. <\/i><\/p>\n<p> More news from Barchart <\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-Gag\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-Gag')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-Gag');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>Is Coffee Moving to Even Higher Highs?<\/li>\n<li>Soft Commodities Q4 and 2024- Where are they Heading in 2025?<\/li>\n<li>Commodity Market Roundup- December\u2019s Top Performers and Underperformers<\/li>\n<li>European Commodities: What Could End the Bullish Trend for Bank Stocks?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"video__inline\">\n<div class=\"video-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>                       <script type=\"text\/javascript\">                       \/\/ Run Ex.co Script and mid-article placement                      (function (d, s, n) {                          var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];                          js = d.createElement(s);                          js.className = n;                          js.src = \"http:\/\/player.ex.co\/player\/4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb\";                          fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);                      }(document, 'script', 'exco-player'));                      \/\/ Ex.co placeholder div                      var element = document.getElementsByClassName('video-placeholder')[0];                      var excoDiv = document.createElement('div');                      excoDiv.id = '4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb';                      if (element && document.getElementById('4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb') == undefined) {                         element.append(excoDiv);                      }                     <\/script>                                                                     <\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>March arabica coffee (KCH25) Friday closed up +4.45 (+1.19%), and March ICE robusta coffee (RMH25) closed down -16 (-0.28%). Coffee prices on Friday settled mixed, with arabica climbing to a new all-time nearest-futures high. \u00a0Global coffee supply fears underpin prices after Conab, Brazil&#8217;s government crop forecasting agency, forecasted Tuesday that Brazil&#8217;s 2025\/26 coffee crop would [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":877,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-876","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/876","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=876"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/876\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/877"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=876"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=876"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=876"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}