{"id":7843,"date":"2025-04-23T17:11:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T21:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/04\/23\/arabica-coffee-soars-on-brazilian-real-strength-and-brazil-crop-concerns\/"},"modified":"2025-04-23T17:11:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T21:11:00","slug":"arabica-coffee-soars-on-brazilian-real-strength-and-brazil-crop-concerns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/04\/23\/arabica-coffee-soars-on-brazilian-real-strength-and-brazil-crop-concerns\/","title":{"rendered":"Arabica Coffee Soars on Brazilian Real Strength and Brazil Crop Concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>July arabica coffee (KCN25) today is up +12.00 (+3.22%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) is up +55 (+1.05%).<\/p>\n<p>Coffee prices today are moving higher, with arabica up sharply to a 2-1\/2 week high. \u00a0Strength in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) is supportive of coffee prices. \u00a0Today, the real climbed to a 2-1\/2 week high against the dollar, discouraging export sales from Brazil&#8217;s coffee producers. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-4J0\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-4J0')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-4J0');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Arabica coffee also has carryover support from Tuesday when Rabobank predicted Brazil's 2025\/26 arabica coffee crop would fall -13.6% y\/y to 38.1 million bags, citing dry weather in key arabica-growing areas that significantly reduced flowering of coffee trees. \u00a0However, gains in robusta coffee are limited after Rabobank predicted Brazil's 2025\/26 robusta coffee crop would climb +7.3% y\/y to a record 24.7 million bags.<\/p>\n<p>Below-normal rain in Brazil may hurt coffee yields and is supportive for prices after Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais, received 17.9 mm of rain in the week ended April 12, or 89% of the historical average.<\/p>\n<p>An increase in current coffee supplies is bearish for prices. \u00a0ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 2-week high of 4,272 lots last Thursday, and ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 6-week high Tuesday of 806,181 bags.<\/p>\n<p>The ongoing global trade turmoil is undercutting most commodity prices, including coffee. \u00a0Also, there is concern that coffee demand will suffer as the higher tariffs increase coffee prices for US consumers. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-FCc\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-FCc')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-FCc');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Supply fears are supportive of coffee prices. \u00a0On April 9, Cecafe reported that Brazil's March green coffee exports fell -26% y\/y to 2.95 million bags. \u00a0On January 28, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, forecasted that Brazil's 2025\/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y\/y to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags. \u00a0Conab also cut its 2024 Brazil coffee crop estimate by -1.1% to 54.2 million bags from a September estimate of 54.8 million bags. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Coffee also has support after Cooxupe, Brazil's largest arabica coffee co-operative, said high temperatures and below-normal rainfall last month in Brazil would negatively affect coffee yields this year. \u00a0Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On the negative side for coffee, Marex Solutions said on March 7 that they expect the global coffee surplus in the 2025\/26 season to widen to 1.2 million bags from +200,000 bags in the 2024\/25 season.<\/p>\n<p>The impact of dry El Nino weather last year may lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. \u00a0Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since last April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil's 2025\/26 arabica coffee crop. \u00a0Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden. \u00a0Also, Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer, is slowly recovering from the El Nino-spurred drought last year.<\/p>\n<p>Robusta coffee has support from reduced robusta production. \u00a0Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023\/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. \u00a0Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y\/y to 1.35 MMT. \u00a0In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on March 12 cut its 2024\/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags from a December estimate of 28 million bags. \u00a0Finally, the Vietnam Customs Department reported Friday that Vietnam's Jan-March coffee exports were down -15.3% y\/y to 495,780 MT. \u00a0Vietnam is the world's largest robusta coffee producer.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-mwY\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-mwY')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-mwY');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>News of larger global coffee exports is bearish for prices. \u00a0Conab reported on February 4 that Brazil's 2024 coffee exports rose +28.8% y\/y to a record 50.5 million bags. \u00a0However, ICO reported on February 6 that Dec global coffee exports fell -12.4% y\/y to 10.73 million bags, and Oct-Dec global coffee exports fell -0.8% y\/y to 32.25 million bags.<\/p>\n<p>The USDA's biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. \u00a0The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024\/25 will increase +4.0% y\/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags. \u00a0The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024\/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023\/24. \u00a0Separately, the USDA's FAS on November 22 projected Brazil's 2024\/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below its previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. \u00a0The USDA's FAS projects Brazil's coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024\/25 season in June, down -26% y\/y.<\/p>\n<p>For the 2025\/26 marketing year, Volcafe on December 17 cut its 2025\/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil. \u00a0Volcafe projects a global 2025\/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024\/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy          here. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>July arabica coffee (KCN25) today is up +12.00 (+3.22%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) is up +55 (+1.05%). Coffee prices today are moving higher, with arabica up sharply to a 2-1\/2 week high. \u00a0Strength in the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) is supportive of coffee prices. \u00a0Today, the real climbed to a 2-1\/2 week high against [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7844,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7843","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7843"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7843\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7843"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7843"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7843"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}