{"id":7286,"date":"2025-04-16T15:39:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T19:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/04\/16\/dollar-weakness-spurs-short-covering-in-cocoa-futures\/"},"modified":"2025-04-16T15:39:00","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T19:39:00","slug":"dollar-weakness-spurs-short-covering-in-cocoa-futures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/04\/16\/dollar-weakness-spurs-short-covering-in-cocoa-futures\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Weakness Spurs Short Covering in Cocoa Futures"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>May ICE NY cocoa (CCK25) today is up +21 (+0.26%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK25) is up +50 (+0.86%).<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices today recovered from early losses and moved moderately higher as a weaker dollar (DXY00) sparked short covering in cocoa futures. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-BgU\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-BgU')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-BgU');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Last Wednesday, NY cocoa fell to a 4-week low, and London cocoa dropped to a 5-month low due to concern that consumer demand for cocoa and cocoa products will decline as the global trade war escalates and tariffs boost already-high cocoa prices. \u00a0Last Thursday, Barry Callebaut AG, one of the world's biggest chocolate makers, cut its annual sales guidance in the face of high cocoa prices and tariff uncertainty. \u00a0Meanwhile, Malaysia reported Monday a -15.3% y\/y decline in Q1 cocoa processing to 84.192 MT on Monday, and Brazil reported a -13% y\/y fall in Q1 cocoa bean grindings to 52.135 MT. \u00a0This Thursday, Asia, Europe, and North America will report their Q1 cocoa grinding figures.<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices have been on the defensive over the past two months, and NY cocoa fell to a 5-month low on March 21 due to an improving supply outlook. \u00a0On February 28, \u00a0the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024\/25, the first surplus in 4 years. \u00a0ICCO also projected that 2024\/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y\/y to 4.84 MMT.<\/p>\n<p>The recovery in cocoa inventories is also bearish for prices. \u00a0Since falling to a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags on January 24, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have rebounded and climbed to a 5-3\/4 month high Monday of 1,883,691 bags. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On April 3, NY cocoa rose to a 1-3\/4 month high on signs of a weak mid-crop cocoa harvest in West Africa. \u00a0According to Rabobank, late-arriving rains in the region have limited crop growth, and recent cocoa farmer surveys from the Ivory Coast and Ghana have been disappointing.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-bOk\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-bOk')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-bOk');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Concern about the Ivory Coast's upcoming mid-crop is supportive of cocoa prices. \u00a0The mid-crop is the smaller of two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts this month. \u00a0The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT.<\/p>\n<p>Recent Ivory Coast cocoa exports have slowed, supporting prices. \u00a0Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.45 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to April 13, up +10.7% from last year but down from the much larger 35% rise seen in December.<\/p>\n<p>Demand concerns are weighing on cocoa prices. \u00a0Executives from chocolate makers Hershey and Mondelez recently warned that high prices are hurting demand. \u00a0On February 4, Mondelez executives warned of a potential slowdown in chocolate demand when CFO Zarmella said, \"We are seeing signs, particularly in parts of the world like North America, where cocoa consumption is coming down.\" \u00a0Also, on February 18, the company warned that chocolate prices could rise as much as 50% due to the surge in cocoa prices, which would curb chocolate demand. \u00a0In addition, Hershey executives said on February 6 that high cocoa prices are forcing it to reformulate recipes by replacing cocoa with other ingredients. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Also on the bearish side, Nigeria reported on February 27 that its Jan cocoa exports jumped +27% y\/y to 46,970 MT. \u00a0Nigeria is the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer.<\/p>\n<p>High cocoa prices reduced cocoa demand in Q4, as seen in the quarterly grinding reports. \u00a0On January 9, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q4 European cocoa grindings fell -5.3% y\/y to 331,853 MT, the lowest in more than 4 years. \u00a0Also, the Cocoa Association of \u00a0Asia reported that Q4 Asian cocoa grindings fell -0.5% y\/y to 210,111 MT, also the lowest in 4 years. \u00a0In addition, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q4 North American cocoa bean grindings fell -1.2% y\/y to 102,761 MT.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-1fg\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-1fg')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-1fg');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Smaller cocoa supplies from Ghana, the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, are supportive for prices after Cocobod, Ghana's cocoa regulator, cut its Ghana 2024\/25 cocoa harvest forecast in December for the second time this season to 617,500 MT, down -5% from an August estimate of 650,000 MT. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The ICCO on February 28 said the 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit was -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. \u00a0ICCO said 2023\/24 cocoa production fell -13.1% y\/y to 4.380 MMT. \u00a0ICCO said the 2023\/24 global cocoa stocks\/grindings ratio was 27.0%, a 46-year low.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy          here. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>May ICE NY cocoa (CCK25) today is up +21 (+0.26%), and May ICE London cocoa #7 (CAK25) is up +50 (+0.86%). Cocoa prices today recovered from early losses and moved moderately higher as a weaker dollar (DXY00) sparked short covering in cocoa futures. \u00a0 Don\u2019t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7287,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7286","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7286","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7286"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7286\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7287"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}