{"id":706,"date":"2025-01-30T07:10:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-30T12:10:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/01\/30\/cocoa-deficit-concerns-push-prices-higher\/"},"modified":"2025-01-30T07:10:00","modified_gmt":"2025-01-30T12:10:00","slug":"cocoa-deficit-concerns-push-prices-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/01\/30\/cocoa-deficit-concerns-push-prices-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"Cocoa Deficit Concerns Push Prices Higher"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>March ICE NY cocoa (CCH25) Wednesday closed up +371 (+3.26%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH25) closed up +152 (+1.68%).<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices jumped Wednesday on the outlook for the global cocoa deficit to widen. \u00a0Last Friday, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) said a survey of global cocoa stockpiles at the end of the 2023\/24 season was at 1.041 MMT, down -36% y\/y and lower than a previous estimate of 1.300 MMT. \u00a0The survey signals that the ICO&#8217;s 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit estimate of -478,000 MT may be even more significant than initially projected.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-j_c\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-j_c')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-j_c');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Tight global cocoa inventories are also bullish for prices. \u00a0ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have been trending lower for the past 1-1\/2 years and fell to a 21-year low last Friday of 1,263,493 bags.<\/p>\n<p>On Tuesday, cocoa prices fell to 1-week lows as recent rains in West Africa temporarily eased dry conditions and sparked some long liquidation pressures.<\/p>\n<p>Last Wednesday, NY cocoa posted a 3-week high, and London cocoa posted a 5-week high on crop production concerns in West Africa. \u00a0Forecaster Maxar Technologies said this year's seasonal Harmattan winds are the driest in six years, worsening crop conditions. \u00a0Some Ivory Coast and Ghana cocoa farmers have reported that cocoa trees are beginning to suffer the effects of the seasonal dry and dusty Harmattan winds, with leaves turning yellow and the cherelles (cocoa pods) withering.<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa also has support from concern that slowing Ivory Coast cocoa exports will tighten global supplies. \u00a0While government data Monday showed Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.24 MMT of cocoa to ports so far this marketing year, up more than +24% from last year, the pace has narrowed from the 35% rise seen last month.<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa also has support after chocolate maker Hershey Co. recently said it sought CFTC approval to buy a large amount of cocoa through the ICE Futures Exchange due to tight global supplies. \u00a0Bloomberg reported that Hershey wants to take a position allowing it to purchase more than 90,000 MT of cocoa on ICE Futures US. \u00a0The purchase size is more than nine times what the exchange currently allows. \u00a0The amount also exceeds a federal position limit of 4,900 contracts, or 49,000 MT, set by the CFTC. \u00a0Global cocoa shortages are so large that it is now cheaper to take delivery of supplies through the New York exchange than buying in the physical market.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-LB8\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-LB8')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-LB8');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>On December 18, NY Cocoa posted an all-time nearest-futures high, and London Cocoa posted an 8-1\/2 month nearest-futures high on the deterioration of the West African cocoa mid-crop outlook. \u00a0Maxar Technologies warned that dry conditions in West Africa will hurt the early development of the mid-year cocoa crop harvested in April and that the arrival of the seasonal Harmattan winds could worsen the situation.<\/p>\n<p>In a bullish factor, the International Cocoa Association (ICCO) on November 22 raised its 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit estimate to -478,000 MT from May's -462,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. \u00a0ICCO also cut its 2023\/24 cocoa production estimate to 4.380 MMT from May's 4.461 MMT, down -13.1% y\/y. \u00a0ICCO projected a 2023\/24 global cocoa stocks\/grindings ratio of 27.0%, a 46-year low.<\/p>\n<p>A bearish factor for cocoa is the concern that high prices are causing demand destruction for cocoa. \u00a0On January 9, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q4 European cocoa grindings fell -5.3% y\/y to 331,853 MT, the lowest in more than 4 years. \u00a0Also, the Cocoa Association of \u00a0Asia reported that Q4 Asian cocoa grindings fell -0.5% y\/y to 210,111 MT, also the lowest in 4 years. \u00a0In addition, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q4 North American cocoa bean grindings fell -1.2% y\/y to 102,761 MT.<\/p>\n<p>Stronger cocoa exports from Nigeria, the world's sixth-largest producer, are also bearish for prices. \u00a0Nigeria's Dec cocoa exports rose +87% y\/y to 46,696 MT.<\/p>\n<p>On the negative side, the Ivory Coast regulator Le Conseil Cafe-Cacao on October 18 raised its Ivory Coast 2024\/25 cocoa production estimate to a range of 2.1-2.2 MMT from a June forecast of 2.0 MMT.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-tno\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-tno')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-tno');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"taboola-placeholder\">\n<div id=\"taboola-mid-article-thumbnails\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>                 <script type=\"text\/javascript\">                     !function (e, f, u) {                     e.async = 1;                     e.src = u; f.parentNode.insertBefore(e, f);                     }(document.createElement('script'), document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0], '\/\/cdn.taboola.com\/libtrc\/nasdaq-nasdaq\/loader.js');                     window._taboola = window._taboola || [];                     _taboola.push({                       mode: 'thumbnails-a-mid',                       container: 'taboola-mid-article-thumbnails',                       placement: 'Mid Article Thumbnails',                       target_type: 'mix'                     });                     _taboola.push({article:'auto', url:''});                 <\/script><\/p>\n<p>Cocoa found support after Ghana's Cocoa Board (Cocobod) on August 20 cut its 2024\/25 Ghana cocoa production estimate to 650,000 MT from a June forecast of 700,000 MT. \u00a0Due to bad weather and crop disease, Ghana's 2023\/24 coca harvest sank to a 23-year low of 425,000 MT. \u00a0Ghana is the world's second-biggest cocoa producer.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><i>     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy          here. <\/i><\/p>\n<p> More news from Barchart <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Is the Rally in Cocoa Running Out of Upside Steam?<\/li>\n<li>Soft Commodities Q4 and 2024- Where are they Heading in 2025?<\/li>\n<li>Commodity Market Roundup- December\u2019s Top Performers and Underperformers<\/li>\n<li>Where is Cocoa Heading in 2025?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"video__inline\">\n<div class=\"video-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>                       <script type=\"text\/javascript\">                       \/\/ Run Ex.co Script and mid-article placement                      (function (d, s, n) {                          var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];                          js = d.createElement(s);                          js.className = n;                          js.src = \"http:\/\/player.ex.co\/player\/4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb\";                          fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);                      }(document, 'script', 'exco-player'));                      \/\/ Ex.co placeholder div                      var element = document.getElementsByClassName('video-placeholder')[0];                      var excoDiv = document.createElement('div');                      excoDiv.id = '4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb';                      if (element && document.getElementById('4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb') == undefined) {                         element.append(excoDiv);                      }                     <\/script>                                                                     <\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>March ICE NY cocoa (CCH25) Wednesday closed up +371 (+3.26%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH25) closed up +152 (+1.68%). Cocoa prices jumped Wednesday on the outlook for the global cocoa deficit to widen. \u00a0Last Friday, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) said a survey of global cocoa stockpiles at the end of the 2023\/24 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":707,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-706","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/706","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=706"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/706\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=706"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=706"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=706"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}