{"id":5558,"date":"2025-03-29T05:23:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-29T09:23:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/03\/29\/ny-coffee-higher-on-dollar-weakness\/"},"modified":"2025-03-29T05:23:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-29T09:23:00","slug":"ny-coffee-higher-on-dollar-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/03\/29\/ny-coffee-higher-on-dollar-weakness\/","title":{"rendered":"NY Coffee Higher on Dollar Weakness"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>May arabica coffee (KCK25) Friday closed up +1.15 (+0.30%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) closed down -14 (-0.26%).<\/p>\n<p>Coffee prices Friday settled mixed. \u00a0Arabica coffee saw support from a weaker dollar. \u00a0However, robusta was under pressure from expectations for an increase in global supplies as Marex Solutions projects Vietnam&#8217;s 2025\/26 robusta production at 28.8 million bags, up +7.9% y\/y, and Brazil&#8217;s 2025\/26 robusta production at 25 million bags, up +13.6% y\/y.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-1rg\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-1rg')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-1rg');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Commodity Bulletin: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, this FREE newsletter is for industry pros and rookies alike  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Coffee prices have been on the defensive the past two sessions, with arabica falling to a 1-month nearest-futures low on Thursday and robusta dropping to a 2-1\/4 month nearest-futures low. \u00a0Coffee prices retreated on forecasts for rain in Brazil that would ease dryness concerns. \u00a0Meteorologist Climatempo forecasted widespread showers for Brazil's coffee-growing regions into next week. \u00a0Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais received 31.2 mm of rain in the week ended March 22, or 102% of the historical average.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this week, coffee prices rose, with arabica posting a 3-week high on Wednesday due to weather concerns in Brazil and Vietnam. \u00a0Cooxupe, Brazil's largest arabica coffee co-operative, said high temperatures and below-normal rainfall last month in Brazil would negatively affect coffee yields this year. \u00a0Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee.<\/p>\n<p>Also, the Dak Lak weather office said last Friday that Vietnam's main coffee-producing region, Central Highlands, is expected to get more hot weather and less rainfall for the March 21-31 period. \u00a0Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee.<\/p>\n<p>Continued supply fears are supporting coffee prices. \u00a0On March 13, Cecafe reported that Brazil's February green coffee exports fell -12% y\/y to 3 million bags. \u00a0Also, on January 28, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, forecasted that Brazil's 2025\/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y\/y to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags. \u00a0Conab also cut its 2024 Brazil coffee crop estimate by -1.1% to 54.2 million bags from a September estimate of 54.8 million bags. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-lSw\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-lSw')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-lSw');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The current coffee inventory situation is mixed. \u00a0ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 7-week high Tuesday of 4,414 lots. \u00a0Conversely, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories fell to a 5-week low Friday of 771,576 bags.<\/p>\n<p>On the negative side for coffee, Marex Solutions said on March 7 that they expect the global coffee surplus in the 2025\/26 season to widen to 1.2 million bags from +200,000 bags in the 2024\/25 season.<\/p>\n<p>The impact of dry El Nino weather last year may lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. \u00a0Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since last April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil's 2025\/26 arabica coffee crop. \u00a0Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden. \u00a0Also, Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer, is slowly recovering from the El Nino-spurred drought last year.<\/p>\n<p>Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by reduced robusta production. \u00a0Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023\/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. \u00a0Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y\/y to 1.35 MMT. \u00a0In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on March 12 cut its 2024\/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags from a December estimate of 28 million bags. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>News of larger global coffee exports is bearish for prices. \u00a0Conab reported on February 4 that Brazil's 2024 coffee exports rose +28.8% y\/y to a record 50.5 million bags. \u00a0Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported on March 6 that Vietnam's Feb coffee exports rose +6.6% y\/y to 169,000 MT. \u00a0However, ICO reported on February 6 that Dec global coffee exports fell -12.4% y\/y to 10.73 million bags, and Oct-Dec global coffee exports fell -0.8% y\/y to 32.25 million bags.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-WVM\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-WVM')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-WVM');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The USDA's biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. \u00a0The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024\/25 will increase +4.0% y\/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags. \u00a0The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024\/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023\/24. \u00a0Separately, the USDA's FAS on November 22 projected Brazil's 2024\/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below its previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. \u00a0The USDA's FAS projects Brazil's coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024\/25 season in June, down -26% y\/y.<\/p>\n<p>For the 2025\/26 marketing year, Volcafe on December 17 cut its 2025\/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil. \u00a0Volcafe projects a global 2025\/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024\/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"taboola-placeholder\">\n<div id=\"taboola-mid-article-thumbnails\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>                 <script type=\"text\/javascript\">                     !function (e, f, u) {                     e.async = 1;                     e.src = u; f.parentNode.insertBefore(e, f);                     }(document.createElement('script'), document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0], '\/\/cdn.taboola.com\/libtrc\/nasdaq-nasdaq\/loader.js');                     window._taboola = window._taboola || [];                     _taboola.push({                       mode: 'thumbnails-a-mid',                       container: 'taboola-mid-article-thumbnails',                       placement: 'Mid Article Thumbnails',                       target_type: 'mix'                     });                     _taboola.push({article:'auto', url:''});                 <\/script><i>     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy          here. <\/i><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p> More news from Barchart <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Monday Is a Major Day in the Grain Futures Markets. Here\u2019s How You Should Be Positioned.<\/li>\n<li>More Price Weakness Could Trigger a Selling Opportunity in July Sugar Futures. Here Are the Levels to Watch.<\/li>\n<li>Will Sugar Follow the Other Soft Commodities?<\/li>\n<li>European Commodities: Tariffs Move Grain Markets, While Sugar Futures Slump<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"video__inline\">\n<div class=\"video-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>                       <script type=\"text\/javascript\">                       \/\/ Run Ex.co Script and mid-article placement                      (function (d, s, n) {                          var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];                          js = d.createElement(s);                          js.className = n;                          js.src = \"http:\/\/player.ex.co\/player\/4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb\";                          fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);                      }(document, 'script', 'exco-player'));                      \/\/ Ex.co placeholder div                      var element = document.getElementsByClassName('video-placeholder')[0];                      var excoDiv = document.createElement('div');                      excoDiv.id = '4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb';                      if (element && document.getElementById('4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb') == undefined) {                         element.append(excoDiv);                      }                     <\/script>                                                                     <\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>May arabica coffee (KCK25) Friday closed up +1.15 (+0.30%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) closed down -14 (-0.26%). Coffee prices Friday settled mixed. \u00a0Arabica coffee saw support from a weaker dollar. \u00a0However, robusta was under pressure from expectations for an increase in global supplies as Marex Solutions projects Vietnam&#8217;s 2025\/26 robusta production at 28.8 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5559,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5558","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5558","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5558"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5558\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5559"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5558"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5558"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5558"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}