{"id":3596,"date":"2025-03-06T18:37:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-06T23:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/03\/06\/forecasts-for-rain-in-brazil-prompt-long-liquidation-in-coffee-futures\/"},"modified":"2025-03-06T18:37:00","modified_gmt":"2025-03-06T23:37:00","slug":"forecasts-for-rain-in-brazil-prompt-long-liquidation-in-coffee-futures","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/03\/06\/forecasts-for-rain-in-brazil-prompt-long-liquidation-in-coffee-futures\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasts for Rain in Brazil Prompt Long Liquidation in Coffee Futures"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>May arabica coffee (KCK25) today is down -22.50 (-5.49%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) is down -194 (-3.44%).<\/p>\n<p>Coffee prices today are sharply lower as forecasts for rain in Brazil sparked long liquidation in coffee futures. \u00a0Somar Meteorologia said today that dry and hot weather in Brazil for the rest of this week will give way to several days of showers next week, easing dry conditions. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-__w\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-__w')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-__w');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Commodity Bulletin: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, this FREE newsletter is for industry pros and rookies alike  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Robusta coffee also came under pressure today after Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported Vietnam's Feb coffee exports rose +6.6% y\/y to 169,000 MT. \u00a0Also, the outlook for rain in Vietnam is weighing on coffee prices, with forecasts showing a chance of rain every day for the next week in Vietnam's Central Highlands, the country's largest coffee-growing region. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Last Monday, \u00a0Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais received 11.4 mm the week ended February 22, or 24% of the historical average. \u00a0This past Monday's rain report was delayed by the Brazilian Carnival holiday. \u00a0Brazil is the world's biggest arabica coffee growing country.<\/p>\n<p>Shrinking inventories are also supportive of coffee prices after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 2-month low last Friday of 4,247 lots. \u00a0Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories slid to a 9-1\/4 month low on February 18 at 758,514 bags, although they have since recovered to a 2-week high of 809,128 bags as of last Thursday.<\/p>\n<p>In a bullish factor, an increased percentage of Brazil's coffee harvest has already been sold compared with previous years, meaning less supply is still available. \u00a0Safras & Mercado reported last Monday that producers sold 88% of Brazil's 2024\/25 coffee harvest as of February 11, faster than last year's comparable year-earlier figure of 79% and the 5-year average of 82%. \u00a0Meanwhile, sales of the 2025\/26 crop have been slow at 13% of the crop, well behind the 4-year average of 22%, which suggests a lack of new supply and an unwillingness of producers to sell.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-Pm8\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-Pm8')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-Pm8');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Continued supply fears have supported coffee prices. \u00a0Cecafe reported on February 12 that Brazil's January green coffee exports fell -1.6% y\/y to 3.98 million bags. \u00a0Also, on January 28, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, forecasted that Brazil's 2025\/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y\/y to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags. \u00a0Conab also cut its 2024 Brazil coffee crop estimate by -1.1% to 54.2 million bags from a September estimate of 54.8 million bags. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The impact of dry El Nino weather last year may lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America. \u00a0Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since last April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil's 2025\/26 arabica coffee crop. \u00a0Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden. \u00a0Also, Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica producer, is slowly recovering from the El Nino-spurred drought last year.<\/p>\n<p>Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by reduced robusta production. \u00a0Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023\/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. \u00a0The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam's robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024\/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023\/24 season. \u00a0In addition, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported on January 10 that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y\/y to 1.35 MMT. \u00a0Conversely, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on December 3 raised its 2024\/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 28 million bags from an October estimate of 27 million bags. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>News of larger global coffee exports is bearish for prices. \u00a0Conab reported on February 4 that Brazil's 2024 coffee exports rose +28.8% y\/y to a record 50.5 million bags. \u00a0 However, ICO reported on February 6 that Dec global coffee exports fell -12.4% y\/y to 10.73 million bags, and Oct-Dec global coffee exports fell -0.8% y\/y to 32.25 million bags.<\/p>\n<p>The USDA's biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. \u00a0The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024\/25 will increase +4.0% y\/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags. \u00a0The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024\/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023\/24. \u00a0Separately, the USDA's FAS on November 22 projected Brazil's 2024\/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below its previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. \u00a0The USDA's FAS projects Brazil's coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024\/25 season in June, down -26% y\/y.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-pOY\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-pOY')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-pOY');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<div class=\"taboola-placeholder\">\n<div id=\"taboola-mid-article-thumbnails\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>                 <script type=\"text\/javascript\">                     !function (e, f, u) {                     e.async = 1;                     e.src = u; f.parentNode.insertBefore(e, f);                     }(document.createElement('script'), document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0], '\/\/cdn.taboola.com\/libtrc\/nasdaq-nasdaq\/loader.js');                     window._taboola = window._taboola || [];                     _taboola.push({                       mode: 'thumbnails-a-mid',                       container: 'taboola-mid-article-thumbnails',                       placement: 'Mid Article Thumbnails',                       target_type: 'mix'                     });                     _taboola.push({article:'auto', url:''});                 <\/script><\/p>\n<p>For the 2025\/26 marketing year, Volcafe on December 17 cut its 2025\/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil. \u00a0Volcafe projects a global 2025\/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024\/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy          here. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"video__inline\">\n<div class=\"video-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>                       <script type=\"text\/javascript\">                       \/\/ Run Ex.co Script and mid-article placement                      (function (d, s, n) {                          var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];                          js = d.createElement(s);                          js.className = n;                          js.src = \"http:\/\/player.ex.co\/player\/4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb\";                          fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);                      }(document, 'script', 'exco-player'));                      \/\/ Ex.co placeholder div                      var element = document.getElementsByClassName('video-placeholder')[0];                      var excoDiv = document.createElement('div');                      excoDiv.id = '4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb';                      if (element && document.getElementById('4c49b82f-103d-41ce-9191-ffa4d1f737fb') == undefined) {                         element.append(excoDiv);                      }                     <\/script>                                                                     <\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>May arabica coffee (KCK25) today is down -22.50 (-5.49%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) is down -194 (-3.44%). Coffee prices today are sharply lower as forecasts for rain in Brazil sparked long liquidation in coffee futures. \u00a0Somar Meteorologia said today that dry and hot weather in Brazil for the rest of this week will [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3597,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3596\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3597"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}