{"id":31165,"date":"2026-01-08T21:48:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-09T02:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2026\/01\/08\/sugar-prices-climb-on-commodity-index-rebalancing\/"},"modified":"2026-01-08T21:48:00","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T02:48:00","slug":"sugar-prices-climb-on-commodity-index-rebalancing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2026\/01\/08\/sugar-prices-climb-on-commodity-index-rebalancing\/","title":{"rendered":"Sugar Prices Climb on Commodity Index Rebalancing"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.08 (+0.53%). \u00a0March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +2.00 (+0.47%).<\/p>\n<p>Sugar prices today extended this week&#8217;s gains and posted 1-week highs. \u00a0Expectations of index-related buying of sugar futures for the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes are pushing sugar prices higher today. \u00a0Citigroup projects that the BCOM and S&#038;P GSCI indexes, the two largest commodity indexes, will see inflows of $1.2 billion in sugar futures contracts over the next week to rebalance the indexes. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-wGo\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-wGo')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-wGo');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Recent strength in the Brazilian real is supportive for sugar as it discourages export sales by Brazilian sugar producers, potentially reducing supplies. \u00a0The real (^USDBRL) climbed to a 1-month high against the dollar on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>Last Monday, NY sugar matched a 2.5-month high on expectations of smaller future sugar supplies from Brazil. \u00a0Consulting firm Safras & Mercado said on December 23 that Brazil's sugar production in 2026\/27 will fall by -3.91% to 41.8 MMT from 43.5 MMT expected in 2025\/26. \u00a0The firm expects Brazil's sugar exports in 2026\/27 to fall -11% y\/y to 30 MMT.<\/p>\n<p>Last Friday, sugar prices fell to 2-week lows on signs of stronger sugar output in India. \u00a0The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) last Thursday reported that Indian sugar production for 2025-26, from October 1 to December 31, jumped 25% y\/y to 11.90 MMT from 9.54 MMT the same time last year. \u00a0Also, the ISMA on November 11 raised its 2025\/26 India sugar production estimate to 31 MMT from an earlier forecast of 30 MMT, up +18.8% y\/y. \u00a0The ISMA also cut its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from a July forecast of 5 MMT, which may allow India to boost its sugar exports. \u00a0India is the world's second-largest sugar producer.<\/p>\n<p>Sugar prices have been under pressure amid prospects of higher sugar exports from India, after India's food secretary said the government may permit additional sugar exports to reduce a domestic supply glut. \u00a0In November, India's food ministry said it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025\/26 season. \u00a0India introduced a quota system for sugar exports in 2022\/23 after late rain reduced production and limited domestic supplies.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-T1E\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-T1E')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-T1E');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>The outlook for record sugar output in Brazil is bearish for prices. \u00a0Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, on November 4 raised its Brazil 2025\/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT. \u00a0Unica reported on December 16 that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November rose by +1.1% y\/y to 39.904 MMT. \u00a0Also, the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rose to 51.12% in 2025\/36 from 48.34% in 2024\/25.<\/p>\n<p>On the bearish side for sugar, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) on November 17 forecast a 1.625 million MT sugar surplus in 2025-26, following a 2.916 million MT deficit in 2024-25. \u00a0ISO said the surplus is being driven by increased sugar production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan. \u00a0ISO is forecasting a +3.2% y\/y rise in global sugar production to 181.8 million MT in 2025-26. \u00a0Meanwhile, sugar trader Czarnikow on November 5 boosted its global 2025\/26 sugar surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a September estimate of 7.5 MMT.<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for prices. \u00a0The Thai Sugar Millers Corp on October 1 projected that Thailand's 2025\/26 sugar crop will increase by +5% y\/y to 10.5 MMT. \u00a0Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter.<\/p>\n<p>The USDA, in its bi-annual report released on December 16, projected that global 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +4.6% y\/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025\/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y\/y to a record 177.921 MMT. \u00a0The USDA also forecast that 2025\/26 global sugar ending stocks would fall by -2.9% y\/y to 41.188 MMT. \u00a0The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025\/26 sugar production would rise by 2.3% y\/y to a record 44.7 MMT. \u00a0FAS also predicted that India's 2025\/26 sugar production would increase by 25% y\/y to 35.25 MMT, driven by favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. \u00a0In addition, FAS predicted that Thailand's 2025\/26 sugar production will increase by +2% y\/y to 10.25 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><i>     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/i><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-Xpc\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-Xpc')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-Xpc');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> More news from Barchart <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The Sweet Case for Buying Sugar Futures in 2026<\/li>\n<li>How Much Higher Will Sugar Prices Go Here?<\/li>\n<li>How Low Can World Sugar Prices Fall?<\/li>\n<li>Sugar Looks Sickly, Not Sweet. How Much Lower Can Prices Go?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) today is up +0.08 (+0.53%). \u00a0March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) is up +2.00 (+0.47%). Sugar prices today extended this week&#8217;s gains and posted 1-week highs. \u00a0Expectations of index-related buying of sugar futures for the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes are pushing sugar prices higher today. \u00a0Citigroup projects [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":31166,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-31165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=31165"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31165\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/31166"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=31165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=31165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=31165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}