{"id":30063,"date":"2025-12-23T19:39:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-24T00:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/12\/23\/cocoa-prices-see-support-from-expectations-for-index-related-buying-2\/"},"modified":"2025-12-23T19:39:00","modified_gmt":"2025-12-24T00:39:00","slug":"cocoa-prices-see-support-from-expectations-for-index-related-buying-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/12\/23\/cocoa-prices-see-support-from-expectations-for-index-related-buying-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Cocoa Prices See Support from Expectations for Index-Related Buying"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) on Tuesday closed up +71 (+1.21%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) closed up +34 (+0.80%).<\/p>\n<p>NY cocoa prices closed higher on Tuesday on continued support from expectations for index-related buying tied to the addition of cocoa futures to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) starting in January. \u00a0According to Citigroup, the inclusion of cocoa in the BCOM may lure as much as $2 billion of buying of NY cocoa futures.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-VgA\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-VgA')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-VgA');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices also have support after ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports fell to a 9.5-month low of 1,626,861 bags on Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>Increased cocoa arrivals at ports in the Ivory Coast are bearish for cocoa prices. \u00a0Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 970,945 MT of cocoa to ports this new marketing year (Oct 1 through Dec 21), down -0.1% from 970,945 MT in the same period a year ago. \u00a0The Ivory Coast is the world's largest cocoa producer.<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices have recently been undercut by favorable weather in West Africa. \u00a0Cocoa farmers in the Ivory Coast have reported that a mix of rain and sunshine that is helping cocoa trees bloom, and farmers in Ghana said rains have been regular and helpful to cocoa tree and pod development ahead of the harmattan season. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Chocolate maker Mondelez recently said that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and \"materially higher\" than last year's crop. \u00a0Harvest of the Ivory Coast's main crop has begun, and farmers are optimistic about its quality.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-XdQ\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-XdQ')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-XdQ');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Cocoa prices have support on a tightening global supply outlook. \u00a0On November 28, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) cut its global 2024\/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 49,000 MT from a previous estimate of 142,000 MT. \u00a0It also lowered its global cocoa production estimate for 2024\/25 to 4.69 MMT from 4.84 MMT previously. \u00a0In addition, Rabobank on Tuesday cut its 2025\/26 global cocoa surplus estimate to 250,000 MT from a November forecast of 328,000 MT.<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices were undercut after the European Parliament on November 26 approved a 1-year delay to the deforestation law, keeping cocoa supplies ample. \u00a0The EU regulation, known as EUDR, aims to tackle deforestation in countries whose imports into the EU include key commodities such as soybeans and cocoa. \u00a0The delay of the EUDR will allow EU countries to continue importing agricultural products from regions in Africa, Indonesia, and South America where deforestation is occurring.<\/p>\n<p>Weak global cocoa demand is bearish for prices. \u00a0On October 30, the CEO of chocolate-maker Hershey said chocolate sales this Halloween season were \"disappointing.\" \u00a0Halloween made up nearly 18% of annual US candy sales in 2024, second only to Christmas. \u00a0Meanwhile, the Cocoa Association of Asia on October 17 reported that Q3 Asia cocoa grindings fell by -17% y\/y to 183,413, the smallest grindings for a Q3 in 9 years. \u00a0The European Cocoa Association on October 16 reported that Q3 European cocoa grindings fell -4.8% y\/y to 337,353 MT, the lowest for a third quarter in 10 years. \u00a0The National Confectioners Association reported that Q3 North American cocoa grindings rose +3.2% y\/y to 112,784 MT, but the addition of new reporting companies skewed the data. \u00a0In related news, North American sales volume of chocolate candy was down more than -21% in the 13 weeks ending September 7, compared to the same period last year, according to data from research firm Circana.<\/p>\n<p>A supportive factor for cocoa is lower cocoa production in Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. \u00a0Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects that Nigeria's 2025\/26 cocoa production will fall by -11% y\/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024\/25 crop year. \u00a0In related news, Nigeria reported that its September cocoa exports were unchanged y\/y at 14,511 MT. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. \u00a0ICCO said 2023\/24 cocoa production fell by -12.9% y\/y to 4.368 MMT. \u00a0ICCO stated that the 2023\/24 global cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to a 46-year low of 27.0%. \u00a0On Friday, the ICCO estimated a 2024\/25 global cocoa surplus of 49,000 MT, marking the first surplus in four years. \u00a0ICCO also said global cocoa production in 2024\/25 rose by +7.4% y\/y to 4.69 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-EtU\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-EtU')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-EtU');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>   <i>     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/i><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p> More news from Barchart <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Will Cocoa Remain Above the Critical Long-Term Technical Support?<\/li>\n<li>Soft Commodities in Q3- What are the Prospects for Q4 and Beyond?<\/li>\n<li>Is Cocoa Heading Back to the Recent High?<\/li>\n<li>Q2 in Soft Commodities- Where are They Heading in Q3 and Beyond?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) on Tuesday closed up +71 (+1.21%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) closed up +34 (+0.80%). NY cocoa prices closed higher on Tuesday on continued support from expectations for index-related buying tied to the addition of cocoa futures to the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) starting in January. \u00a0According to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":30064,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30063","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30063","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30063"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30063\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/30064"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30063"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30063"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30063"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}