{"id":26813,"date":"2025-11-17T20:37:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T01:37:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/11\/17\/cocoa-prices-undercut-by-us-tariff-cut\/"},"modified":"2025-11-17T20:37:00","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T01:37:00","slug":"cocoa-prices-undercut-by-us-tariff-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/11\/17\/cocoa-prices-undercut-by-us-tariff-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Cocoa Prices Undercut by US Tariff Cut"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) on Monday closed down -23 (-0.44%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) closed down -60 (-1.47%).<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices fell after the Trump administration announced last Friday that it dropped the 10% reciprocal tariffs on commodities not grown in the US, including cocoa. \u00a0However, US imports of cocoa from Brazil will still apparently be subject to the 40% US national-security tariff on imports from Brazil. \u00a0In 2023, Brazil was the fifth-largest cocoa producer in the world.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-q48\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-q48')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-q48');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Signs of a slowdown in cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, are a positive factor for prices. \u00a0Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 516,787 MT of cocoa to ports this new marketing year, from October 1 through November 16, down -5.7% from 548,494 MT in the same period a year ago. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Since posting 6-week highs in early November, cocoa prices have retreated amid expectations of a bumper cocoa crop in West Africa. \u00a0Reports from Ivory Coast cocoa farmers stated that cocoa trees are doing well, and recent dry weather helped harvested beans dry, while cocoa farmers in Ghana said favorable weather is allowing cocoa pods to develop quickly. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Chocolate maker Mondelez recently said that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and \"materially higher\" than last year's crop. \u00a0The harvest of the Ivory Coast's main crop has just begun, and farmers are optimistic about its quality.<\/p>\n<p>Weak global cocoa demand is also bearish for prices. \u00a0On October 30, the CEO of chocolate-maker Hershey said chocolate sales this Halloween season were \"disappointing.\" \u00a0Halloween made up nearly 18% of annual US candy sales in 2024, second only to Christmas. \u00a0Meanwhile, the Cocoa Association of Asia on October 17 reported that Q3 Asia cocoa grindings fell by -17% y\/y to 183,413, the smallest grindings for a Q3 in 9 years. \u00a0The European Cocoa Association on October 16 reported that Q3 European cocoa grindings fell -4.8% y\/y to 337,353 MT, the lowest for a third quarter in 10 years. \u00a0The National Confectioners Association reported that Q3 North American cocoa grindings rose +3.2% y\/y to 112,784 MT, but the addition of new reporting companies skewed the data. \u00a0In related news, North American sales volume of chocolate candy was down more than -21% in the 13 weeks ending September 7, compared to the same period last year, according to data from research firm Circana.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-oCk\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-oCk')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-oCk');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Shrinking ICE cocoa inventories are supportive for cocoa prices. \u00a0ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports fell to a 7.75-month low of 1,766,644 bags on Friday.<\/p>\n<p>A supportive factor for cocoa is lower cocoa production in Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. \u00a0Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects that Nigeria's 2025\/26 cocoa production will fall by -11% y\/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024\/25 crop year. \u00a0In related news, Nigeria reported that its September cocoa exports were unchanged y\/y at 14,511 MT. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. \u00a0ICCO said 2023\/24 cocoa production fell by -13.1% y\/y to 4.380 MMT. \u00a0ICCO stated that the 2023\/24 global cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to a 46-year low of 27.0%. \u00a0For 2024\/25, ICCO estimated a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT, marking the first surplus in four years. \u00a0ICCO also said global cocoa production in 2024\/25 rose by +7.8% y\/y to 4.84 MMT.<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) on Monday closed down -23 (-0.44%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) closed down -60 (-1.47%). Cocoa prices fell after the Trump administration announced last Friday that it dropped the 10% reciprocal tariffs on commodities not grown in the US, including cocoa. \u00a0However, US imports of cocoa from Brazil [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26814,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26813","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26813","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26813"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26813\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26814"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26813"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26813"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26813"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}