{"id":24470,"date":"2025-10-22T20:14:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-23T00:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/10\/22\/cocoa-prices-settle-sharply-higher-on-supply-fears\/"},"modified":"2025-10-22T20:14:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-23T00:14:00","slug":"cocoa-prices-settle-sharply-higher-on-supply-fears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/10\/22\/cocoa-prices-settle-sharply-higher-on-supply-fears\/","title":{"rendered":"Cocoa Prices Settle Sharply Higher on Supply Fears"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) on Wednesday closed up +382 (+6.46%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) closed up +366 (+8.71%).<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices rallied sharply on Wednesday, with NY cocoa posting a 2-week high and London cocoa posting a 2.5-week high.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-ZFw\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-ZFw')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-ZFw');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Supply concerns are driving up cocoa prices after the EU proposed only a six-month delay for enforcing its deforestation laws on Tuesday, rather than the previously announced one-year timeframe. \u00a0The deforestation laws would require traceability requirements for farm products, including cocoa, produced in countries where forests are cut down for farming, potentially tightening supplies as farm products from these countries would not be allowed into the EU.<\/p>\n<p>Tighter cocoa inventories are supportive for prices after ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports fell to a 6.5-month low of 1,854,690 bags on Wednesday.<\/p>\n<p>An excessively short position by commodity funds in London cocoa futures could exacerbate any short-covering rally. \u00a0Funds boosted their net-short positions in London cocoa by 2,286 to 13,057 in the week ended October 14, the largest short position in more than three years, according to the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data released last Friday. \u00a0The US government shutdown has delayed the release of figures for NY cocoa positioning. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Signs of a slowdown in the pace of cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, are also supportive for prices. \u00a0Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 133,209 MT of cocoa to ports this new marketing year from October 1 through October 19, down -31% compared with 192,804 MT in the same period a year ago.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-j40\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-j40')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-j40');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Signs of weak global cocoa demand are bearish for prices. \u00a0Last Friday, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q3 Asia cocoa grindings fell -17% y\/y to 183,413, the smallest grindings for a Q3 in 9 years. \u00a0Also, last Thursday, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q3 European cocoa grindings fell -4.8% y\/y to 337,353 MT, the lowest for a third quarter in 10 years. \u00a0The National Confectioners Association reported that Q3 North American coca grindings rose +3.2% y\/y to 112,784 MT, but the addition of new reporting companies to the report skewed the data.<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices have been under pressure over the past two months amid fears that high cocoa prices and tariffs could dampen chocolate demand. \u00a0North American sales volume of chocolate candy was down more than -21% in the 13 weeks ending September 7, compared to the same period last year, according to data from research firm Circana.<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for an improved cocoa crop in the Ivory Coast this year is also bearish for prices. \u00a0Chocolate maker Mondelez recently said that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and \"materially higher\" than last year's crop. \u00a0The harvest of the Ivory Coast's main crop has just begun, and farmers are optimistic about the quality of the crop.<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa deliveries in Ghana have surged, weighing on prices. \u00a0Cocoa arrivals to ports in Ghana in the four weeks ending September 4 reached 50,440 MT compared to about 11,000 MT delivered in the same period in 2024. \u00a0Ghana is the world's second-largest producer of cocoa.<\/p>\n<p>A supportive factor for cocoa is the smaller cocoa production in Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. \u00a0Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects that Nigeria's 2025\/26 cocoa production will fall by -11% y\/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024\/25 crop year. \u00a0In related news, Nigeria reported that its August cocoa exports rose +15% y\/y to 17,239 MT. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-Ak4\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-Ak4')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-Ak4');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. \u00a0ICCO said 2023\/24 cocoa production fell by 13.1% y\/y to 4.380 MMT. \u00a0ICCO stated that the 2023\/24 global cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to a 46-year low of 27.0%. \u00a0Looking ahead to 2024\/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. \u00a0ICCO also projected that 2024\/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y\/y to 4.84 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><i>     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/i><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p> More news from Barchart <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>As the Harvest Reaches a Halfway Point, Corn Is Heading Into a \u2018Buy\u2019 Zone<\/li>\n<li>Sugar Looks Sickly, Not Sweet. How Much Lower Can Prices Go?<\/li>\n<li>Soft Commodities in Q3- What are the Prospects for Q4 and Beyond?<\/li>\n<li>Is the Global Soybean Balance Sheet Tight?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) on Wednesday closed up +382 (+6.46%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) closed up +366 (+8.71%). Cocoa prices rallied sharply on Wednesday, with NY cocoa posting a 2-week high and London cocoa posting a 2.5-week high. Don\u2019t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24471,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24470","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24470","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24470"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24470\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24471"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24470"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24470"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24470"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}