{"id":24131,"date":"2025-10-19T19:38:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-19T23:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/10\/19\/cocoa-prices-retreat-as-global-demand-weakens\/"},"modified":"2025-10-19T19:38:00","modified_gmt":"2025-10-19T23:38:00","slug":"cocoa-prices-retreat-as-global-demand-weakens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/10\/19\/cocoa-prices-retreat-as-global-demand-weakens\/","title":{"rendered":"Cocoa Prices Retreat as Global Demand Weakens"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) on Friday closed down -96 (-1.60%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) closed down -92 (-2.19%).<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices fell from 1-week highs on Friday and settled sharply lower on signs of weak global cocoa demand. \u00a0The Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q3 Asia cocoa grindings fell -17% y\/y to 183,413, the smallest grindings for a Q3 in 9 years. \u00a0On Thursday, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q3 European cocoa grindings fell -4.8% y\/y to 337,353 MT, the lowest for a third quarter in 10 years. \u00a0However, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q3 North American coca grindings rose +3.2% y\/y to 112,784 MT. \u00a0The bullish aspects of the Q3 North American grindings report were negated, however, after the addition of new reporting companies to the report skewed the data.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-pzI\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-pzI')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-pzI');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On Monday, cocoa prices extended their two-month-long decline, with NY cocoa posting a 20-month nearest-futures low and London cocoa posting a 20.5-month nearest-futures low. \u00a0Cocoa prices remain under pressure due to the outlook for abundant supplies amid weak demand.<\/p>\n<p>The governments of the Ivory Coast and Ghana have recently increased the amount they pay farmers for their cocoa beans, which is expected to boost sales and cocoa supplies. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices have also been under pressure over the past two months amid fears that high cocoa prices and tariffs could dampen chocolate demand. \u00a0North American sales volume of chocolate candy was down more than -21% in the 13 weeks ending September 7, compared to the same period last year, according to data from research firm Circana.<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for an improved cocoa crop in the Ivory Coast this year is also bearish for prices. \u00a0Chocolate maker Mondelez recently said that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and \"materially higher\" than last year's crop. \u00a0The harvest of the Ivory Coast's main crop has just begun, and farmers are optimistic about the quality of the crop.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-tkE\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-tkE')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-tkE');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Expectations of abundant global cocoa supplies are hammering cocoa prices. \u00a0Cocoa deliveries in Ghana have surged, weighing on prices. \u00a0Cocoa arrivals to ports in Ghana in the four weeks ending September 4 reached 50,440 MT compared to about 11,000 MT delivered in the same period in 2024. \u00a0Ghana is the world's second-largest producer of cocoa.<\/p>\n<p>Tighter cocoa inventories are supportive for prices after ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports fell to a 6.25-month low of 1,870,004 bags on Friday.<\/p>\n<p>An excessive short position by commodity funds could exacerbate any short-covering rally, as funds boosted their net-short positions in London cocoa by 2,286 to 13,057 in the week ended October 14, the largest short position in more than three years, according to the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) data released on Friday. \u00a0The US government shutdown has delayed the release of figures for NY cocoa positioning. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa has some support from a slowdown in the pace of cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer. \u00a0Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 48,753 MT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1-11, compared with 100,264 MT in the same period a year ago. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa are supportive of prices. \u00a0According to Rabobank, the poor quality of the Ivory Coast's mid-crop is partly attributed to late-arriving rain in the region, which limited crop growth. \u00a0The mid-crop is the smaller of the two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts in April and ends in September. \u00a0The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-EM8\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-EM8')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-EM8');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Another supportive factor for cocoa is the smaller cocoa production in Nigeria, the world's fifth-largest cocoa producer. \u00a0Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects Nigeria's 2025\/26 cocoa production will fall -11% y\/y to 305,000 MT from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024\/25 crop year. \u00a0In related news, Nigeria reported that its August cocoa exports rose +15% y\/y to 17,239 MT. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. \u00a0ICCO said 2023\/24 cocoa production fell by 13.1% y\/y to 4.380 MMT. \u00a0ICCO stated that the 2023\/24 global cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to a 46-year low of 27.0%. \u00a0Looking ahead to 2024\/25, ICCO forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT on February 28, 2024, marking the first surplus in four years. \u00a0ICCO also projected that 2024\/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y\/y to 4.84 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) on Friday closed down -96 (-1.60%), and December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ25) closed down -92 (-2.19%). Cocoa prices fell from 1-week highs on Friday and settled sharply lower on signs of weak global cocoa demand. \u00a0The Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q3 Asia cocoa grindings fell -17% y\/y [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24132,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24131\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24132"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}