{"id":21069,"date":"2025-09-15T20:55:00","date_gmt":"2025-09-16T00:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/09\/15\/stocks-rally-as-bond-yields-fall-before-fomc-meeting\/"},"modified":"2025-09-15T20:55:00","modified_gmt":"2025-09-16T00:55:00","slug":"stocks-rally-as-bond-yields-fall-before-fomc-meeting","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/09\/15\/stocks-rally-as-bond-yields-fall-before-fomc-meeting\/","title":{"rendered":"Stocks Rally as Bond Yields Fall Before FOMC Meeting"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>The\u00a0S&#038;P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +0.47%,\u00a0the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI)\u00a0(DIA) closed up +0.11%, and the\u00a0Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.84%.\u00a0 September E-mini S&#038;P futures (ESU25) rose +0.43%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) rose +0.80%.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Stock indexes rallied on Monday, with the S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs.\u00a0 Falling bond yields are supportive for stocks ahead of the Tue\/Wed FOMC meeting, when the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bp.\u00a0 The 10-year T-note yield fell -2 bp to 4.04%.\u00a0 Also, megacap technology stocks and chip makers moved higher on Monday to provide support to the overall market.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-keg\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-keg')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-keg');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Join 200K+ Subscribers: <\/span> Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Trade concerns with China weighed on some chip makers on Monday.\u00a0Texas Instruments closed down more than -2% after China said it was launching an anti-dumping investigation targeting a type of semiconductor made by the company. \u00a0Also, China ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws after acquiring Mellanox Technologies in 2020.<\/p>\n<p>Monday's US economic news was bearish for stocks after the Sep Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions fell -20.6 to a three-month low of -8.7, weaker than expectations of 5.0.<\/p>\n<p>Most major US benchmark indexes, including the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrials, and the Nasdaq 100, continue to post record highs, driven by expectations of Fed interest rate cuts.\u00a0 Weak labormarket newsand relatively contained inflation reports bolstered expectations for at least a 25 bp rate cut by the Fed at the Tue\/Wed FOMC meeting and a total of 70 bp of rate cuts by year's end.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Weakness in Chinese economic news is negative for global growth prospects.\u00a0 China's Aug industrial production rose +5.2% y\/y, weaker than expectations of +5.6% y\/y.\u00a0 Also, China's Aug retail sales rose +3.4% y\/y, weaker than expectations of +3.8% y\/y.\u00a0In addition, the China Aug surveyed jobless rate unexpectedly rose +0.1 to a 6-month high of 5.3%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 5.2%.\u00a0 Finally, China's Aug new home prices fell -0.3% m\/m, the twenty-seventh consecutive month new home prices have declined.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-o8c\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-o8c')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-o8c');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Market focus this week will be on any new trade or tariff news.\u00a0 On Tuesday, Aug retail sales are expected to climb +0.3% m\/m, and Aug retail sales ex-autos are expected to increase +0.4% m\/m.\u00a0 Also, Aug manufacturing production is expected to fall -0.3% m\/m.\u00a0 Finally, on Tuesday, the Sep NAHB housing market index is expected to rise by +1 to 33.\u00a0On Wednesday, the FOMC is expected to cut the federal funds rate target by -25 bp to 4.00%-4.25% from 4.25%-4.50% and Fed Chair Powell will deliver post-FOMC meeting comments. \u00a0On Thursday, weekly initial unemployment claims are expected to fall -23,000 to 240,000.<\/p>\n<p>The markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a -25 bp rate cut and a 5% chance of a -50 bp rate cut at the conclusion of the Tue\/Wed FOMC meeting.\u00a0 After the fully expected -25 bp rate cut at Wednesday's meeting, the markets are discounting an 80% chance of a second -25 bp rate cut at the Oct 28-29 meeting.\u00a0 The markets are pricing in an overall -68 bp rate cut in the federal funds rate by year-end to 3.65% from the current 4.33% rate.<\/p>\n<p>Overseas stock markets on Monday settled mixed.\u00a0 The Euro Stoxx 50 climbed to a 3-week high and closed up +0.92%. \u00a0China's Shanghai Composite closed down -0.26%. \u00a0Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 was closed for the Respect-for-the-aged Day holiday.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Interest Rates<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>December 10-year T-notes (ZNZ5) on Monday closed up +6 ticks.\u00a0 The 10-year T-note yield fell by -2.8 bp to 4.036%.\u00a0 Dec T-notes recovered from a 1-week low on Monday and turned higher after the US Sep Empire manufacturing survey general business conditions fell more than expected to a three-month low, a dovish factor for Fed policy.\u00a0 T-notes are also supported by expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 bp at the conclusion of the Tue\/Wed FOMC meeting.\u00a0Strength in stocks on Monday limited gains in T-note prices.<\/p>\n<p>Concerns about Fed independence are negatively impacting T-note prices due to President Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Cook and Stephen Miran's intention to hold a Fed Governor position while remaining technically in his White House role on the Council of Economic Advisors.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-83E\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-83E')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-83E');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>European government bond yields moved lower on Monday. \u00a0The 10-year German bund yield fell -2.4 bp to 2.691%.\u00a0The 10-year UK gilt yield fell -3.8 bp to 4.633%.<\/p>\n<p>The German Aug wholesale price index fell -0.6% m\/m, the biggest decline in a year.<\/p>\n<p>ECB Governing Council member Kocher said the ECB interest rate cut cycle is at \"or very close to\" the end, and policy can remain on hold for the time being, provided there are no major shocks in data.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>ECB Executive Board member Schnabel said the ECB should maintain its current level of interest rates, as \"upside risks to inflation dominate, with tariffs, services inflation, food inflation, and fiscal policy as potential drivers.\"<\/p>\n<p>Fitch Ratings late last Friday downgraded France's credit assessment to A+ from AA-, citing the country's rising public indebtedness and political instability.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-1fE\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-4\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-1fE')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-1fE');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Swaps are discounting a 3% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the October 30 policy meeting.<\/p>\n<p><strong>US Stock Movers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Strength in megacap technology stocks on Monday was a supportive factor for the overall market.\u00a0 Alphabet (GOOGL) rose more than +4% after Citigroup raised its price target on the stock to $280 from $225.\u00a0Also, Tesla (TSLA) closed up more than +3% after an SEC filing showed Elon Musk purchased about $1 billion of the stock last Friday.\u00a0 In addition, Amazon.com (AMZN) closed up more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials.\u00a0 Finally, Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Apple (AAPL) closed up more than +1%.<\/p>\n<p>Chip makers rallied on Monday.\u00a0 ASML Holding NV (ASML) closed up more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. \u00a0Also, Intel (INTC) closed up more than +3% and KLA Corp (KLAC) closed up more than +2%.\u00a0 In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), GlobalFoundries (GFS), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) closed up more than +1%.<\/p>\n<p>Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) closed up more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 after Bank of America raised its price target on the stock to $215 from $170.<\/p>\n<p>Western Digital (WDC) closed up more than +4% after Bank of America raised its price target on the stock to $123 from $100.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-_i4\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-5\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-_i4')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-_i4');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Oracle (ORCL) closed up more than +3% after President Trump hinted at a potential TikTok deal with China.<\/p>\n<p>Eaton Corp Plc (ETN) closed up more than +2% after Melius Research LLC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $495.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>TKO Group Holdings (TKO) closed up more than +1% after its board announced that it will buy back $1 billion of Class A common shares.<\/p>\n<p>Corteva (CTVA) closed down more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 after KeyBanc Capital Markets said the news of a potential breakup of the company's seed and pesticide business is negative and Bloomberg Intelligence said it undermines \"product and financial logic.\"<\/p>\n<p>Texas Instruments (TXN) closed down more than -2% after China said it was launching an anti-dumping investigation targeting a type of semiconductor made by the company.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-BCw\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-6\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-BCw')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-BCw');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Builders FirstSource (BLDR) closed down more than -2% after Wedbush downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>AstraZeneca Plc (AZN) closed down more than -1% after Handelsbanken downgraded the stock to hold from buy.<\/p>\n<p>Healthcare Realty Trust (HR) closed down nearly -1% after Raymond James downgraded the stock to underperform from market perform.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earnings Reports(9\/16\/2025)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Evolution Petroleum Corp (EPM), Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG), Ispire Technology Inc (ISPR), NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT), US Gold Corp (USAU).<\/p>\n<p><i>     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/i><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-XrU\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-7\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-XrU')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-XrU');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> More news from Barchart <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Stocks Set to Open Higher as Investors Await Fed Meeting and U.S. Economic Data<\/li>\n<li>What is the Most Likely Outcome of this Week's Fed Meeting?<\/li>\n<li>What Do We Already Know About REAL Supply and Demand in Grains?<\/li>\n<li>Stock Index Futures Muted After Record Rally, U.S. Confidence Data on Tap<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The\u00a0S&#038;P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed up +0.47%,\u00a0the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI)\u00a0(DIA) closed up +0.11%, and the\u00a0Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed up +0.84%.\u00a0 September E-mini S&#038;P futures (ESU25) rose +0.43%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) rose +0.80%.\u00a0 Stock indexes rallied on Monday, with the S&#038;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21070,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21069"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21069\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}