{"id":17249,"date":"2025-08-04T18:47:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T22:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/08\/04\/dollar-falls-with-bond-yields-on-fed-rate-cut-speculation\/"},"modified":"2025-08-04T18:47:00","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T22:47:00","slug":"dollar-falls-with-bond-yields-on-fed-rate-cut-speculation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/08\/04\/dollar-falls-with-bond-yields-on-fed-rate-cut-speculation\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Falls with Bond Yields on Fed Rate Cut Speculation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday added to last Friday\u2019s losses and fell by -0.38%.\u00a0 The dollar moved lower Monday on negative carryover from last Friday\u2019s weaker-than-expected US payroll and ISM manufacturing reports, which sent T-note yields lower and bolstered speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates as soon as next month.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Also, questions about the Fed\u2019s credibility are weighing on the dollar after Fed Governor Adriana Kugler resigned last Friday, which could prompt President Trump to nominate a new governor who is more dovish and could undermine Fed Chair Powell\u2019s influence.\u00a0 \u00a0Strength in stocks on Monday has also reduced liquidity demand for the dollar.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-vnA\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-vnA')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-vnA');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Join 200K+ Subscribers: <\/span> Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>US June factory orders fell -4.8% m\/m, right on expectations and the biggest decline in more than 5 years.\u00a0 However, June factory orders ex-transportation rose +0.4% m\/m, stronger than the expectations of +0.3% m\/m and the largest increase in 7 months.<\/p>\n<p>Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 90% at the \u00a0September 16-17 FOMC meeting and 70% at the following meeting on October 28-29.<\/p>\n<p>EUR\/USD (^EURUSD) Monday fell by -0.15%.\u00a0 The euro moved lower Monday after the Eurozone Aug Sentix investor confidence index unexpectedly declined.\u00a0 Also, Monday\u2019s fall in the 10-year German bund yield to a 1-month low has weakened the euro\u2019s interest rate differentials. \u00a0In addition, the euro is struggling due to concerns that President Trump\u2019s tariff policies will curb economic growth in the Eurozone.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The Eurozone Aug Sentix investor confidence index unexpectedly fell -8.2 to -3.7, weaker than expectations of an increase to 6.9.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-jcw\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-jcw')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-jcw');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Swaps are pricing in a 15% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting.<\/p>\n<p>USD\/JPY (^USDJPY) today added to last Friday\u2019s sharp losses and fell -0.31%. \u00a0The yen rallied to a 1-week high against the dollar Monday after the Nikkei Stock index dropped to a 1.5-week low, which spurred some safe-haven buying of the yen.\u00a0 Also, Monday\u2019s slide in T-note yields was supportive of the yen.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>December gold (GCZ25) on Monday closed up +26.60 (+0.78%), and September silver (SIU25) closed up +0.399 (+1.08%). \u00a0Precious metals settled higher on Monday, with gold prices rising to a 1-week high.\u00a0 Monday\u2019s dollar weakness and lower global government bond yields were bullish for metals.\u00a0Precious metals also have carryover support from last Friday\u2019s weaker-than-expected US July payroll and July ISM manufacturing reports, which boosted speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates as soon as next month.\u00a0 \u00a0The chance of a Fed interest rate cut at the September FOMC meeting has risen to 90% from 40% before the reports.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Precious metals prices also have safe-haven support on concerns that President Trump\u2019s tariff policies will weigh on global economic growth prospects.\u00a0Finally, precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support from geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-od4\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-od4')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-od4');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday added to last Friday\u2019s losses and fell by -0.38%.\u00a0 The dollar moved lower Monday on negative carryover from last Friday\u2019s weaker-than-expected US payroll and ISM manufacturing reports, which sent T-note yields lower and bolstered speculation that the Fed may cut interest rates as soon as next month.\u00a0 Also, questions [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":17250,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17249"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17249\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17250"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}