{"id":16937,"date":"2025-07-31T16:47:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-31T20:47:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/07\/31\/cocoa-prices-settle-sharply-higher-on-supply-woes\/"},"modified":"2025-07-31T16:47:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-31T20:47:00","slug":"cocoa-prices-settle-sharply-higher-on-supply-woes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/07\/31\/cocoa-prices-settle-sharply-higher-on-supply-woes\/","title":{"rendered":"Cocoa Prices Settle Sharply Higher on Supply Woes"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) on Thursday closed up +314 (+3.83%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) closed up +186 (+3.40%).<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices settled sharply higher Thursday, with London cocoa posting a 4-week high. \u00a0Cocoa prices have been supported this week on concern that the slowdown in the pace of Ivory Coast cocoa exports could tighten global supplies. \u00a0On Tuesday, NY cocoa posted a 4-week high after Monday&#8217;s government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.75 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to July 27, up +6.1% from last year but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag--qY\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag--qY')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag--qY');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Concerns about dry weather in West Africa are also bullish for cocoa prices. \u00a0According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, rainfall in the Ivory Coast and Ghana this season remains below the 30-year average, and combined with high temperatures, risks hurting cocoa pod development for the main crop harvest that starts in October.<\/p>\n<p>A significant short position by commodity funds in London cocoa futures raises the potential for short covering. \u00a0Last Friday, ICE Futures Europe reported that funds boosted their net-short London cocoa positions by 1,904 to 8,265 short positions the week ended July 22, the most in more than two years.<\/p>\n<p>Concerns over tepid chocolate demand are bearish for cocoa prices. \u00a0Last Tuesday, chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli AG lowered its margin guidance for the year due to a larger-than-expected decline in first-half chocolate sales. \u00a0Also, chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG reduced its sales volume guidance earlier this month for a second time in three months, citing persistently high cocoa prices. \u00a0The company projects a decline in full-year sales volume and reported a -9.5% drop in its sales volume for the March-May period, the largest quarterly decline in a decade.<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices sold off earlier this month, with NY cocoa sinking to an 8-month nearest-futures low and London cocoa slumping to a 17-month nearest-futures low. \u00a0 Weakness in global cocoa demand has hammered prices. \u00a0The European Cocoa Association reported on July 17 that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell by -7.2% y\/y to 331,762 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -5% y\/y. \u00a0Also, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q2 Asian cocoa grindings fell -16.3% y\/y to 176,644 MT, the smallest amount for a Q2 in 8 years. \u00a0North American Q2 cocoa grindings fell -2.8% y\/y to 101,865 MT, which was a smaller decline than the declines seen in Asia and Europe.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-A7Q\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-A7Q')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-A7Q');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>In a bearish development, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports reached a 10.5-month high of 2,368,141 bags last Tuesday.<\/p>\n<p>Higher cocoa production by Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices. \u00a0On July 1, the Ghana Cocoa Board projected the 2025\/26 Ghana cocoa crop would increase by +8.3% y\/y to 650,000 from 600,000 MT in 2024\/25. \u00a0Ghana is the world's second-largest cocoa producer. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices have support from quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa, which is currently being harvested through September. \u00a0Cocoa processors are complaining about the quality of the crop and have rejected truckloads of Ivory Coast cocoa beans. \u00a0Processors reported that about 5% to 6% of the mid-crop cocoa in each truckload is of poor quality, compared with 1% during the main crop. \u00a0According to Rabobank, the poor quality of the Ivory Coast's mid-crop is partly attributed to late-arriving rain in the region, which limited crop growth. \u00a0The mid-crop is the smaller of the two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts in April. \u00a0The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT.<\/p>\n<p>On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. \u00a0ICCO said 2023\/24 cocoa production fell by 13.1% y\/y to 4.380 MMT. \u00a0ICCO stated that the 2023\/24 global cocoa stocks-to-grindings ratio declined to a 46-year low of 27.0%. \u00a0Looking ahead to 2024\/25, ICCO on February 28 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024\/25, the first surplus in four years. \u00a0ICCO also projected that 2024\/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y\/y to 4.84 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-anE\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-anE')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-anE');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>September ICE NY cocoa (CCU25) on Thursday closed up +314 (+3.83%), and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU25) closed up +186 (+3.40%). Cocoa prices settled sharply higher Thursday, with London cocoa posting a 4-week high. \u00a0Cocoa prices have been supported this week on concern that the slowdown in the pace of Ivory Coast cocoa exports [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16938,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16937"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16937\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16938"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}