{"id":16337,"date":"2025-07-25T16:13:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-25T20:13:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/07\/25\/ample-global-supplies-undercut-sugar-prices\/"},"modified":"2025-07-25T16:13:00","modified_gmt":"2025-07-25T20:13:00","slug":"ample-global-supplies-undercut-sugar-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/07\/25\/ample-global-supplies-undercut-sugar-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Ample Global Supplies Undercut Sugar Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Friday closed down -0.28 (-1.69%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed down -9.20 (-1.92%).<\/p>\n<p>Sugar prices retreated on Friday and have been under pressure this week due to speculation that India may boost its sugar exports.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-Z5I\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-Z5I')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-Z5I');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday, sugar prices fell to 3-week lows after Bloomberg reported that India may permit local sugar mills to export sugar in the next season, which starts in October, as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. \u00a0India's Meteorological Department reported Monday that cumulative monsoon rain in India is 6% above normal as of July 21.<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for higher sugar production in Brazil is bearish for sugar prices. \u00a0Datagro said Monday that dry weather in Brazil has encouraged the country's sugar mills to increase their cane crushing, diverting more of the cane crush toward more profitable sugar production rather than ethanol. \u00a0According to Covrig, Brazil's sugar mills are expected to crush 54% of the available cane in the first half of this month, likely adding 3.2 MMT of sugar into the market. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. \u00a0On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +19% y\/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. \u00a0That would follow a -17.5% y\/y decline in India's sugar production in 2024\/25 to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). \u00a0Also, the ISMA reported on July 7 that India's sugar production during Oct 1-May 15 fell -17% y\/y to 25.74 MMT.<\/p>\n<p>Sugar prices have retreated over the past three months, with NY sugar falling to a 4.25-year low earlier this month and London sugar sliding to a nearly 4-year low, driven by expectations of a sugar surplus in the 2025\/26 season. \u00a0On June 30, commodities trader Czarnikow projected a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025\/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. \u00a0On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025\/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y\/y to a record 189.318 MMT, with global sugar ending stocks at 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% y\/y.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-vWw\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-vWw')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-vWw');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Signs that the recent slide in sugar prices to 4-year lows has sparked a pickup in demand are positive for sugar prices. \u00a0China's June sugar imports soared by 1,435% to 420,000 MT. \u00a0Also, President Trump last Wednesday said Coca-Cola agreed to use cane sugar in Coke beverages sold in the US instead of high-fructose corn syrup, which could boost US sugar consumption by +4.4% to 11.5 MMT from 11 MMT currently, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>Sugar prices also have support from reduced sugar production in Brazil. \u00a0Unica reported last Monday that the cumulative 2025\/26 Brazil Center-South sugar output through June fell by -14.3% y\/y to 12.249 MMT. \u00a0Last month, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, said 2024\/25 Brazil sugar production fell by -3.4% y\/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat.<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. \u00a0On May 2, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand's 2024\/25 sugar production rose +14% y\/y to 10.00 MMT. \u00a0Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.<\/p>\n<p>The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024\/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. \u00a0This indicates a tightening market following the 2023\/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. \u00a0ISO also cut its 2024\/25 global sugar production forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y\/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025\/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y\/y to a record 177.921 MMT. \u00a0The USDA also forecasted that 2025\/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y\/y to 41.188 MMT. \u00a0The USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025\/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y\/y to a record 44.7 MMT \u00a0FAS predicted that India's 2025\/26 sugar production would rise +25% y\/y to 35.3 MMT due to favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. \u00a0FAS predicted that Thailand's 2025\/26 sugar production will climb +2% y\/y to 10.3 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-OQ4\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-OQ4')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-OQ4');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Friday closed down -0.28 (-1.69%), and October London ICE white sugar #5 (SWV25) closed down -9.20 (-1.92%). Sugar prices retreated on Friday and have been under pressure this week due to speculation that India may boost its sugar exports. Don\u2019t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":16338,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16337","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16337","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16337"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16337\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/16338"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16337"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16337"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16337"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}