{"id":13594,"date":"2025-06-26T15:09:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T19:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/06\/26\/sugar-prices-tumble-on-an-expected-global-sugar-surplus\/"},"modified":"2025-06-26T15:09:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-26T19:09:00","slug":"sugar-prices-tumble-on-an-expected-global-sugar-surplus","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/06\/26\/sugar-prices-tumble-on-an-expected-global-sugar-surplus\/","title":{"rendered":"Sugar Prices Tumble on an Expected Global Sugar Surplus"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) today is down -0.38 (-2.38%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) is down -0.80 (-0.17%).<\/p>\n<p>Sugar prices today extended their three-month-long selloff, with NY sugar dropping to a 4-year nearest-futures low. \u00a0Sugar prices have been under pressure over the past three months due to expectations of a global sugar surplus. \u00a0On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that global 2025\/26 sugar production would increase by +4.7% y\/y to a record 189.318 million metric tons (MMT), with a global sugar surplus of 41.188 MMT, up 7.5% year-over-year.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-tws\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-tws')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-tws');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for higher sugar production in India, the world's second-largest producer, is bearish for prices. \u00a0On June 2, India's National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India's 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +19% y\/y to 35 MMT, citing larger planted cane acreage. \u00a0The outlook for abundant rainfall in India could lead to a bumper sugar crop, which is bearish for prices. \u00a0On April 15, India's Ministry of Earth Sciences projected an above-normal monsoon this year, with total rainfall forecast to be 105% of the long-term average. \u00a0India's monsoon season runs from June through September. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Signs of larger global sugar output are negative for prices. \u00a0On May 22, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) predicted that Brazil's 2025\/26 sugar production would rise +2.3% y\/y to a record 44.7 MMT. \u00a0Also, India's 2025\/26 sugar production is projected to rise +25% y\/y to 35.3 MMT, citing favorable monsoon rains and increased sugar acreage. \u00a0In addition, Thailand's 2025\/26 sugar production is expected to climb +2% y\/y to 10.3 MMT.<\/p>\n<p>In a bearish factor, the Indian government said on January 20 that it would allow its sugar mills to export 1 MMT of sugar this season, easing the restrictions placed on sugar exports in 2023. \u00a0India has restricted sugar exports since October 2023 to maintain adequate domestic supplies. \u00a0India allowed mills to export only 6.1 MMT of sugar during the 2022\/23 season to September 30, after allowing exports of a record 11.1 MMT in the previous season. \u00a0However, the ISMA projects that India's 2024\/25 sugar production will fall -17.5% y\/y to a 5-year low of 26.2 MMT. \u00a0Also, the ISMA reported last Monday that India's sugar production from Oct 1-May 15 was 25.74 MMT, down -17% from the same period last year. \u00a0In addition, Indian Food Secretary Chopra said on May 1 that India's 2024\/25 sugar exports may only total 800,000 MT, below earlier expectations of 1 MMT.<\/p>\n<p>The outlook for higher sugar production in Thailand is bearish for sugar prices. \u00a0On May 2, Thailand's Office of the Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand's 2024\/25 sugar production rose +14% y\/y to 10.00 MMT. \u00a0Thailand is the world's third-largest sugar producer and the second-largest exporter of sugar.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-51c\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-51c')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-51c');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>A positive factor for sugar prices is the expected increase in sugar imports from Pakistan, following the Pakistani government's announcement last Friday that it plans to import 250,000 metric tons of raw sugar due to a disappointing sugarcane harvest.<\/p>\n<p>Sugar prices have some support from reduced sugar production in Brazil. \u00a0Unica reported last Monday that the cumulative 2025\/26 Brazil Center-South sugar output through May is down by -11.6% y\/y to 6.954 MMT. \u00a0Last month, Conab, Brazil's government crop forecasting agency, said 2024\/25 Brazil sugar production fell -3.4% y\/y to 44.118 MMT, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its 2024\/25 global sugar deficit forecast to a 9-year high of -5.47 MMT on May 15, up from a February forecast of -4.88 MMT. \u00a0This indicates a tightening market following the 2023\/24 global sugar surplus of 1.31 MMT. \u00a0ISO also cut its 2024\/25 global sugar production forecast to 174.8 MMT from a February forecast of 175.5 MMT. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The USDA, in its bi-annual report released May 22, projected that global 2025\/26 sugar production would climb +4.7% y\/y to a record 189.318 MMT and that global 2025\/26 human sugar consumption would increase +1.4% y\/y to a record 177.921 MMT. \u00a0The USDA also forecasted that 2025\/26 global sugar ending stocks would climb +7.5% y\/y to 41.188 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><i>     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/i><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-8Lo\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-8Lo')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-8Lo');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p> More news from Barchart <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>How Much Lower Can Sugar Prices Go?<\/li>\n<li>Sugar Futures Remain Bearish- Can the Sweet Commodity Rally?<\/li>\n<li>Sugar Prices Are Falling on Robust Supplies. Here Are the Levels to Watch Before You Sell.<\/li>\n<li>Forecasts for Robust Sugar Production Are Pressuring Prices. How to Trade Sugar Futures Here.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>July NY world sugar #11 (SBN25) today is down -0.38 (-2.38%), and August London ICE white sugar #5 (SWQ25) is down -0.80 (-0.17%). Sugar prices today extended their three-month-long selloff, with NY sugar dropping to a 4-year nearest-futures low. \u00a0Sugar prices have been under pressure over the past three months due to expectations of a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13595,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13594","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13594","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13594"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13594\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}