{"id":12385,"date":"2025-06-12T14:11:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-12T18:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/06\/12\/coffee-prices-under-pressure-as-brazil\/"},"modified":"2025-06-12T14:11:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-12T18:11:00","slug":"coffee-prices-under-pressure-as-brazil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/06\/12\/coffee-prices-under-pressure-as-brazil\/","title":{"rendered":"Coffee Prices Under Pressure as Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>July arabica coffee (KCN25) today is down -3.90 (-1.11%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) is down -4 (-0.09%).<\/p>\n<p>Coffee prices today are moving lower, with arabica and robusta posting 1-week lows. \u00a0Coffee prices remain under pressure from Brazil&#8217;s coffee harvest. \u00a0Brazil&#8217;s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Tuesday that its members reported the coffee harvest was 13.7% complete, compared with 13.6% at the same time last year. \u00a0Cooxupe is Brazil&#8217;s largest coffee cooperative and is Brazil&#8217;s largest exporter of coffee. \u00a0Also, Safras &#038; Mercado reported that Brazil&#8217;s 2025\/26 coffee harvest was 28% complete as of June 4, just ahead of the five-year average of 27% for the same time of year.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-ZZs\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-ZZs')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-ZZs');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Robusta coffee recovered from their worst level today as signs of tighter supplies sparked short-covering in robusta futures. \u00a0ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 3-week low today of 5,184 lots. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past five weeks, with arabica coffee falling to a 2-month low last Tuesday and robusta dropping to a 7-1\/4 month low due to concerns about higher coffee production and ample supplies. \u00a0On May 19, the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil's 2025\/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y\/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025\/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y\/y to 31 million bags. \u00a0Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee.<\/p>\n<p>Recent above-normal rainfall in Brazil has eased concerns about dryness and is bearish for coffee prices. \u00a0Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais, received 23.4 mm of rain the week ended June 7, 207% of the historical average for this time of year.<\/p>\n<p>An increase in ICE coffee inventories is undercutting coffee prices. \u00a0Also, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4-1\/4 month high of 892,468 bags on May 27.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-iBg\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-iBg')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-iBg');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>On May 9, the USDA forecasted that 2025\/26 coffee production in Honduras, Central America's largest coffee producer, would climb +5.1% y\/y to 5.8 million bags. \u00a0Also, consulting firm Safras & Mercado raised its Brazil 2025\/26 coffee production estimate to 65.51 million bags from an earlier estimate of 62.45 million bags. \u00a0In addition, Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, raised its Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate to 55.7 million bags from a January estimate of 51.81 million bags.<\/p>\n<p>Demand concerns are bearish for coffee prices. \u00a0Several global commodity importers, including Starbucks, Hershey, and Mondelez International, recently said the US's baseline 10% tariff on imports would raise prices and further pressure sales volumes.<\/p>\n<p>Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are bullish for prices. \u00a0On Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil's May green coffee exports fell -36% y\/y to 2.8 million bags.<\/p>\n<p>Robusta coffee has support from reduced robusta production. \u00a0Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023\/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. \u00a0Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y\/y to 1.35 MMT. \u00a0Last Tuesday, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2025 Vietnam's Jan-May coffee exports are down -1.8% y\/y to 813,000 MT. \u00a0In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on March 12 cut its 2024\/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags from a December estimate of 28 million bags. \u00a0 Conversely, the USDA's FAS on May 19 projected that Vietnam's 2025\/26 coffee crop would climb +7% y\/y to a 4-year high of 30 million bags.<\/p>\n<p>The USDA's biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. \u00a0The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024\/25 will increase +4.0% y\/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags. \u00a0The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024\/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023\/24. \u00a0Separately, the USDA's FAS on November 22 projected Brazil's 2024\/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below its previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. \u00a0The USDA's FAS projects Brazil's coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024\/25 season in June, down -26% y\/y.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-eDk\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-eDk')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-eDk');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>For the 2025\/26 marketing year, Volcafe on December 17 cut its 2025\/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil. \u00a0Volcafe projects a global 2025\/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024\/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>July arabica coffee (KCN25) today is down -3.90 (-1.11%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) is down -4 (-0.09%). Coffee prices today are moving lower, with arabica and robusta posting 1-week lows. \u00a0Coffee prices remain under pressure from Brazil&#8217;s coffee harvest. \u00a0Brazil&#8217;s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced Tuesday that its members reported the coffee harvest was [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12386,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12385","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12385","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12385"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12385\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12386"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}