{"id":12383,"date":"2025-06-12T14:11:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-12T18:11:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/06\/12\/dollar-weakness-lifts-cocoa-prices\/"},"modified":"2025-06-12T14:11:00","modified_gmt":"2025-06-12T18:11:00","slug":"dollar-weakness-lifts-cocoa-prices","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/06\/12\/dollar-weakness-lifts-cocoa-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"Dollar Weakness Lifts Cocoa Prices"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>July ICE NY cocoa (CCN25) today is up +299 (+3.13%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN25) is up +67 (+1.03%).<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices are soaring today as today&#8217;s -0.65% drop in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 3-1\/4 year low has prompted strength in most commodities, including cocoa. \u00a0Gains in London cocoa are muted today after the British pound (^GBPUSD) rallied to a 3-1\/4 year high. \u00a0The stronger pound weighs on cocoa that is priced in terms of sterling. \u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-gTg\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-gTg')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-gTg');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Signs of smaller global supplies are supportive of cocoa prices, following Wednesday's news that showed a -11% y\/y decline in Nigerian April cocoa exports to 18,561 MT. \u00a0Nigeria is the world's fourth-largest cocoa exporter.<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices have been under pressure this week, with NY cocoa falling to a 1-1\/2 week low on Wednesday. \u00a0The outlook for beneficial rainfall in West Africa is improving the prospects for the region's cocoa crop and is weighing on prices. \u00a0Weather forecasts predict that rain showers will persist through this week in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, the world's two largest cocoa-producing countries.<\/p>\n<p>The rebound in current cocoa inventories is also bearish for prices. \u00a0Since falling to a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags on January 24, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports have rebounded and climbed to an 8-3\/4 month high of 2,269,384 bags Wednesday. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices have underlying support from the slowing pace of cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast, signaling tighter future cocoa supplies. \u00a0Tuesday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.64 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to June 8, up +7.2% from last year but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-Shc\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-Shc')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-Shc');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Late last month, NY cocoa rallied to a 4-month nearest-futures high on concerns about weather in West Africa. \u00a0Despite the recent rain in West Africa, drought still covers more than a third of Ghana and the Ivory Coast, according to the African Flood and Drought Monitor.<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices also have support on quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast cocoa mid-crop, which is currently being harvested through September. \u00a0Cocoa processors are complaining about the crop's quality and have rejected truckloads of Ivory Coast cocoa beans. \u00a0Processors reported that about 5% to 6% of the mid-crop cocoa in each truckload is of poor quality, compared with 1% during the main crop.<\/p>\n<p>According to Rabobank, the poor quality of the Ivory Coast's mid-crop is partly attributed to late-arriving rain in the region, which limited crop growth. \u00a0The mid-crop is the smaller of two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts in April. \u00a0The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT.<\/p>\n<p>Concern that consumer demand for cocoa and cocoa products will wane is bearish for cocoa, driven by fears that tariffs will exacerbate already high cocoa prices. \u00a0On April 10, Barry Callebaut AG, one of the world's largest chocolate makers, reduced its annual sales guidance due to high cocoa prices and tariff uncertainty. \u00a0Also, chocolate maker Hershey Co. recently reported that Q1 sales fell by 14% and said it anticipated $15-$20 million in tariff costs in Q2, which will boost chocolate prices and further weigh on consumer demand. \u00a0In addition, Mondelez International reported weaker-than-expected Q1 sales, stating that consumers are cutting back on snack purchases due to economic uncertainty and high chocolate prices. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Cocoa prices also have a positive carryover from recent news indicating better-than-expected global cocoa demand. \u00a0Q1 North American cocoa grindings fell -2.5% y\/y to 110,278 MT, better than expectations of at least a -5% y\/y fall. \u00a0Also, Q1 European cocoa grindings fell -3.7% y\/y to 353,522 MT, a smaller decline than expectations for a -5% y\/y drop. \u00a0In addition, Q1 Asian cocoa grinding fell -3.4% y\/y to 213,898 MT, a smaller decline than expectations for a fall of at least -5% y\/y.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-tSM\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-tSM')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-tSM');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Smaller cocoa supplies from Ghana, the world's second-biggest cocoa producer, are supportive for prices after Cocobod, Ghana's cocoa regulator, cut its Ghana 2024\/25 cocoa harvest forecast in December for the second time this season to 617,500 MT, down -5% from an August estimate of 650,000 MT. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On May 30, The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023\/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. \u00a0ICCO said 2023\/24 cocoa production fell -13.1% y\/y to 4.380 MMT. \u00a0ICCO said the 2023\/24 global cocoa stocks\/grindings ratio was 27.0%, a 46-year low. \u00a0Looking ahead to 2024\/25, ICCO on February 28 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024\/25, the first surplus in 4 years. \u00a0ICCO also projected that 2024\/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y\/y to 4.84 MMT.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.          For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy      here. <\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>July ICE NY cocoa (CCN25) today is up +299 (+3.13%), and July ICE London cocoa #7 (CAN25) is up +67 (+1.03%). Cocoa prices are soaring today as today&#8217;s -0.65% drop in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 3-1\/4 year low has prompted strength in most commodities, including cocoa. \u00a0Gains in London cocoa are muted today [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12384,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12383","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12383"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12383\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12384"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12383"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12383"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12383"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}