{"id":10725,"date":"2025-05-23T21:48:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-24T01:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/05\/23\/coffee-prices-rebound-as-dollar-weakness-spurs-short-covering\/"},"modified":"2025-05-23T21:48:00","modified_gmt":"2025-05-24T01:48:00","slug":"coffee-prices-rebound-as-dollar-weakness-spurs-short-covering","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/2025\/05\/23\/coffee-prices-rebound-as-dollar-weakness-spurs-short-covering\/","title":{"rendered":"Coffee Prices Rebound as Dollar Weakness Spurs Short Covering"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"layout__region nsdq-l-grid__item syndicated-article-body\">\n<section class=\"jupiter22-c-article-body\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"body__content\">\n<p>July arabica coffee (KCN25) Friday closed up +0.25 (+0.07%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) closed up +3 (+0.06%).<\/p>\n<p>Coffee prices on Friday recovered from early losses and closed slightly higher. \u00a0Short covering emerged in coffee futures Friday after the dollar index (DXY00) sank to a 3-week low.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-MYo\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-1\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-MYo')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-MYo');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>     <span>Don\u2019t Miss a Day: <\/span> From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart\u2019s best-in-class commodity analysis.  <\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Coffee prices initially moved lower on Friday, with arabica posting a 5-week low and robusta posting a 6-week low. \u00a0 An increase in ICE coffee inventories weighed on prices. \u00a0ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to an 8-month high Friday of 5,438 lots. \u00a0Also, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 3-3\/4 month high Friday of 886,590 bags.<\/p>\n<p>Coffee prices have been under pressure over the past three weeks on the outlook for higher coffee production and ample supplies. \u00a0On Monday, the USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil's 2025\/26 coffee production will climb +0.5% y\/y to 65 million bags and that Vietnam's 2025\/26 coffee output will climb +6.9% y\/y to 31 million bags. \u00a0Brazil is the world's largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world's largest producer of robusta coffee.<\/p>\n<p>On May 9, the USDA forecast 2025\/26 coffee production in Honduras, Central America's largest coffee producer, would climb +5.1% y\/y to 5.8 million bags. \u00a0Also, consulting firm Safras & Mercado raised its Brazil 2025\/26 coffee production estimate to 65.51 million bags from an earlier estimate of 62.45 million bags. \u00a0In addition, Conab, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, raised its Brazil 2025 coffee production estimate to 55.7 million bags from a January estimate of 51.81 million bags.<\/p>\n<p>Demand concerns are bearish for coffee prices. \u00a0Several global commodity importers, including Starbucks, Hershey, and Mondelez International, recently said the US's baseline 10% tariff on imports would raise prices and further pressure sales volumes.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-GT8\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-2\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-GT8')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-GT8');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Signs of bigger coffee supplies are also weighing on coffee prices after Safras Mercado last Friday reported that Brazil's 2024\/25 coffee sales were 97% completed as of May 13, faster than 94% from the same time last year. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The downside for coffee prices in the near term may be limited due to concern that poor weather in Brazil will lead to a smaller coffee crop. \u00a0Somar Meteorologia reported Monday that Brazil's biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais, received 2.5 mm of rain in the week ended May 17, or 12% of the historical average. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Signs of smaller coffee exports from Brazil are supportive of prices. \u00a0Last Monday, Cecafe reported that Brazil's April green coffee exports fell -28% y\/y to 3.05 million bags, and Jan-Apr coffee exports fell -15.5% y\/y to 13.186 million bags.<\/p>\n<p>Robusta coffee has support from reduced robusta production. \u00a0Due to drought, Vietnam's coffee production in the 2023\/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years. \u00a0Also, Vietnam's General Statistics Office reported that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y\/y to 1.35 MMT. \u00a0Last Tuesday, Vietnam's National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam's 2025 Jan-Apr coffee exports are down -9.8% y\/y to 663,000 MT. \u00a0In addition, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on March 12 cut its 2024\/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 26.5 million bags from a December estimate of 28 million bags. \u00a0 Conversely, Rabobank predicted that Brazil's 2025\/26 robusta coffee crop would climb +7.3% y\/y to a record 24.7 million bags.<\/p>\n<p>The USDA's biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices. \u00a0The USDA's Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024\/25 will increase +4.0% y\/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags. \u00a0The USDA's FAS forecasts that 2024\/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023\/24. \u00a0Separately, the USDA's FAS on November 22 projected Brazil's 2024\/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below its previous forecast of 69.9 MMT. \u00a0The USDA's FAS projects Brazil's coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024\/25 season in June, down -26% y\/y.<\/p>\n<div class=\"ads__inline\">\n<div id=\"js-dfp-tag-ds0\"  class=\"btf-bodymidpagetwothirdswidth-3\">          <script type=\"text\/javascript\">         googletag.cmd.push(function() {             \/\/ Check if ID matches ID in the window.adsList array before calling googletag.display             function isAdInAdsList(id) {             for (var i = 0; i < window.adsList.length; i++) {                 if (window.adsList[i].id === id) {                     return true;                 }             }             return false;         }         if (isAdInAdsList('js-dfp-tag-ds0')) {             googletag.display('js-dfp-tag-ds0');         }         });     <\/script> <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>For the 2025\/26 marketing year, Volcafe on December 17 cut its 2025\/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil. \u00a0Volcafe projects a global 2025\/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024\/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><i>     On the date of publication,      Rich Asplund              did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy          here. <\/i><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p> More news from Barchart <\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Coffee Prices Hit a 5-Week Low on Higher Supply Fears. How to Trade It.<\/li>\n<li>Is Coffee Heading for Another New High?<\/li>\n<li>Coffee Futures Hit New Highs This Week on Weather, Transportation Issues. What to Watch Before You Buy.<\/li>\n<li>July ICE Coffee Futures Just Hit a 9-Week Low. Here Are the Levels to Watch Before You Sell.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"body__disclaimer\">The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<p>        <script type=\"text\/javascript\">   \/\/ add oddAd class to every odd instance of body .ads__inline for different placeholder styles   let articleAds = document.querySelectorAll('.ads__inline');   for (let i = 0, len = articleAds.length; i < len; i++) {     \/\/ Do the below only if the curent count is less than 12     if ((i < 12) &#038;&#038; (i % 2 === 0)) {       articleAds[i].className += ' oddAd';     }   } <\/script>                                               <\/p>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags jupiter22-c-tags-default\">\n<h3 class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-title\">         Tags       <\/h3>\n<div class=\"jupiter22-c-tags-container\">Stocks<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>July arabica coffee (KCN25) Friday closed up +0.25 (+0.07%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) closed up +3 (+0.06%). Coffee prices on Friday recovered from early losses and closed slightly higher. \u00a0Short covering emerged in coffee futures Friday after the dollar index (DXY00) sank to a 3-week low. Don\u2019t Miss a Day: From crude oil [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10726,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-stock","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10725"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10725\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sharewatch.com\/wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}