It is close to impossible to predict what US tariffs will mean for the Irish economy.
But the report from the Economic and Social Research Insititute with the Department of Finance looks at a variety of scenarios and what impact they could have on Ireland.
The outcome of the analysis is not pretty.
If there was a 10% tariff by the US on imports from the rest of the world Gross Domestic Product, a measure of the economy which includes the contribution from multinationals, would fall by 2.5% and the domestic economy would drop by 1.7%.
The study looks at the impact if the EU was to retaliate with reciprocal import taxes.
That would result in a fall of 2.5% in GDP and a drop of 1.7% in the domestic economy.
The more damaging scenario would be if the US imposes 25% tariffs.
In that situation Irish GDP would fall by 3.7% and the domestic economy would drop by 1.8%.
But there are a lot of caveats.
There won’t be confirmation about which products are covered by tariffs and at what rate until April 2 when the Trump administration is due to make its announcement.
And there are some critical questions about the pharmaceutical sector, which accounts for €58 billion of Ireland’s €72 billion of exports to the US.
It is not yet clear whether any tariffs will apply to finished goods only, or will they include ingredients made by drug manufacturers here.
Ireland produces a large volume of constituents for the pharmaceutical goods, if they were excluded it would significantly reduce the impact of US import taxes.
But the report does highlight the concentrated nature of corporation taxes paid by multinationals.
Earlier this week the Central Bank said about €15 billion of those taxes are at risk from tariffs. That is a huge figure in the context of the Irish economy.
And of course, there are wider effects from the trade war on employment and consumer spending.
Even before any tariffs are imposed there is heightened uncertainty caused by the speculation about what may happen.
That means many businesses may put off investment decisions and consumers may put planned purchases on hold.
That unpredictability is having a damaging effect too.
