September Nymex natural gas (NGU25) on Thursday closed up +0.013 (+0.46%).
Sep nat-gas prices on Thursday recovered a bit from Wednesday’s 9-month nearest-futures low.
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Thursday's weekly EIA nat gas inventory report of +56 bcf was slightly bearish compared with the consensus of +54 bcf.
Nat-gas prices continue to be undercut by forecasts for cooler US temps and Tuesday's EIA forecast of higher US gas production. Atmospheric G2 said Thursday that forecasts shifted slightly cooler across the upper Midwest and Northeast for Aug 14-18.
Nat-gas prices were undercut Tuesday when the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +0.5% to 106.44 bcf/day from July's estimate of 105.9 bcf/day. The EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US nat-gas production by +0.7% to 106.09 from July's 105.4 bcf/day forecast. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Thursday was 109.4 bcf/day (+6.7% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Thursday was 81.4 bcf/day (+4.3% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Thursday were 15.8 bcf/day (+0.4% w/w), according to BNEF.
In a bearish factor, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended August 9 fell -1.9% y/y to 93,293 GWh (gigawatt hours), although US electricity output in the 52-week period ending August 9 rose +2.6% y/y to 4,257,529 GWh.
Thursday's weekly EIA report was slightly bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 1 rose +56 bcf, slightly above the consensus of +54 bcf and well above the 5-year weekly average of +33 bcf. As of August 8, nat-gas inventories were down -2.4% y/y, but were +6.6% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of August 9, gas storage in Europe was 72% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 79% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending August 8 fell by -1 to 123 rigs, slipping from the 2-year high of 124 rigs posted on August 1. In the past ten months, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
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