Oil prices rose today though were set for their steepest weekly decline since March 2023, as the absence of significant supply disruption from the Iran-Israel conflict saw any risk premium evaporate.
West Texas Intermediate futures, the US crude oil benchmark, were up 0.1% at $65.30 per barrel, inching higher for the third straight day. WTI had surged to more than $77 early in the week amid concerns that the supply of oil could be disrupted by the Middle East fighting, but fell sharply once those fears eased.
During the 12-day war that started after Israel targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities on June 13, Brent prices rose briefly to above $80 a barrel before slumping to $67 a barrel after US President Donald Trump announced an Iran-Israel ceasefire.
That put both contracts on course for a weekly fall of about 12%.
“The market has almost entirely shrugged off the geopolitical risk premiums from almost a week ago as we return to a fundamentals-driven market,” said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.
“The market also has to keep eyes on the OPEC+ meeting – we do expect room for one more month of an accelerated unwinding basis balances and structure, but the key question is how strong the summer demand indicators are showing up to be.”
The OPEC+ members will meet on July 6 to decide on August production levels.
Prices were also being supported by multiple oil inventory reports that showed strong draws in the middle distillates, said Tamas Varga, a PVM Oil Associates analyst.
Data from the US Energy Information Administration on Wednesday showed crude oil and fuel inventories News Storya week earlier, with refining activity and demand rising.
Meanwhile, data on Thursday showed that the independently held gasoil stocks at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp(ARA) refining and storage hub fell to their lowest in over a year, while Singapore’s middle distillates inventories declined as net exports climbed week on week.
Additionally, China’s Iranian oil imports surged in June as shipments accelerated before the conflict and demand from independent refineries improved, analysts said.
China is the world’s top oil importer and biggest buyer of Iranian crude. It bought more than 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian crude from June 1-20, according to ship-tracker Vortexa, a record high based on the firm’s data.
