As he walked out into the beaming summer sunlight of the Government Buildings courtyard on Tuesday morning, Minister for Housing James Browne had big plans on his mind.
Fresh from the weekly Cabinet meeting where his latest housing initiative took centre stage, the Fianna Fáil TD seemed confident his rent control plans would be met with a warmer welcome than previous pronouncements.
Yes, the housing tsar appointment that never was of NAMA Chief Executive Brendan McDonagh had fallen victim to the Opposition’s Bolshevik-style attacks.
Correct, the pre-general election housing projections – albeit something that occurred before Minister Browne’s time in office – had made his first few months in the department difficult.
And, it is true to say, house prices are exceeding Celtic Tiger levels, rent rates now average more than €2,000 a month nationally, and the number of people now homeless is reaching 15,580 last month.
But, the calmly spoken minister must have thought as he approached the microphones clutching his rent control plans, this time it will be different.
If only it were that simple.
Much like how the sunshine of that morning was soon replaced by monsoon-like rain, Minister Browne and Government’s latest plans to address the housing crisis spent much of this week fighting the Dáil elements – specifically a deluge of opposition criticism.
For the Government, the plans will “bring clarity and certainty” to the sector, “are probably the strongest set of rent protection measures we’ve ever had in the history of the State”, and much like a tortured genius have just been misunderstood.
However, for the Opposition, they represent another example of “screwing over renters”, of the Coalition “scrambling around like headless chickens”, and of the Government “creating housing policy on the back of an envelope”.
Criticism which, whether fair or not, shows no sign of drying out any time soon.
The original plan
That division stems at least partially from what Minister Browne himself announced and the well-intentioned but complicated nature of what it means for various groups in society.
Firstly, as part of the minister’s plans, the existing rent pressure zones in place in 111 of Ireland’s 166 local electoral areas will be extended to include the entire country, while the annual rent price increase cap in existing rent pressure zone tenancies will remain at 2% or the rate of inflation, whichever is lower.
Secondly, for tenancies in new-build apartments which commence after 1 March next year, no official annual rent increase cap will exist, with the rate instead linked informally to the consumer price index – a percentage regularly above 2%.
This, it is argued, is to incentivise developers and investors to continue building homes in Ireland, which in turn, it is argued, will help to bring prices down over time due to their being more supply and less demand.
Thirdly, what were described as “large” landlords with four or more properties will no longer be able to end someone’s tenancy through a no fault eviction, while smaller landlords with three or less properties will only be able to do so if they suffer financial hardship or their personal or family circumstances change.
Fourthly, once a tenancy is agreed, the rules governing it must remain in place for six years, unless the renter chooses of their own volition to end the tenancy at which point a landlord will be able to charge the next tenant the market rate.
And fifthly, in this scenario a landlord will at that point be allowed to change the rental price to the market rate rather than be limited to the previous 2% annual increase – a situation which will also be allowed at the end of any six-year term.
Like most documents, the full plan is of course more complicated than what has been outlined above. But these are its key points, with Minister Browne telling reporters on Tuesday: “The Government has today agreed a new national rent control and approved tenancy protections because we want to provide certainty, clarity and stability for the rental sector.”
That point of view, however, was soon questioned by the Opposition, which, among other concerns, focused their main criticism on a crucial part of the plan they alleged contained a glaring omission.
Was there a u-turn or not?
That alleged omission, opposition TDs have argued (and Government has strenuously denied), is the timing of the change to rent pressure zones.
Almost immediately after the publication of the plans, the Opposition raised concerns over the apparent gap between Tuesday’s announcements and when rent pressure zones would be extended to the entire country.
In a 14-page briefing note given to journalists on Tuesday, the Department of Housing said that “transitional measures will be required to extend the operation of rent pressure zones until the end of February 2026, pending the introduction of the new arrangements” relating to the new rent control plans regime.
This, the Opposition argued, meant that while existing tenants in current rent pressure zones will be covered all the way up to the introduction of the new rules on 1 March next year, existing tenants in 55 local elected areas not currently covered by these zones would not.
And, it was claimed, there was a group of people who ran the very real risk of a landlord currently outside of existing rent pressure zones and therefore not constrained by the current 2% rent cap, raising their prices before they came under the extended national rent pressure zone blanket next year – with the added incentive this would result in the base of their six year tenancy price being higher than what it is now.
In the Dáil, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald said this situation amounted to the Government “screwing over renters”, while Labour leader Ivana Bacik said that regardless of what was planned, rent pressure zone protections were being “hollowed out”.
Not at all, said Government – although it took the Coalition a little while to say so.
It was not until after a considerable amount of confusion from both politicians and media on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, that Government sources made it abundantly clear that the national rent pressure zone extension would be introduced far earlier than the 1 March 2026 plans.
This would involve priority legislation which would go to Cabinet and be signed into law as soon as possible – and until then not overtly mentioned plan official sources insisted was agreed at a Coalition leaders meeting on Monday night.
Currently, there is no sign of this fast-tracked legislation on the Dáil’s order of business schedule for this coming week, a document agreed by the Dáil’s cross-party business committee on Fridays.
However, RTÉ News understands that would-be bill is highly likely to go to Cabinet this coming Tuesday, at which point the Minister Browne will write to the chair of the Committee on Housing – Fine Gael TD Micheál Carrigy – asking him to waive the need for pre-legislative scrutiny.
That would allow for the Office of the Parliamentary Counsel to the Government to draft the bill as soon as possible, with the legislation potentially being introduced in the Dáil this coming Thursday, although early the following week is believed to be a more likely prospect.
Several Government sources have insisted this was always the plan and that it was just not communicated clearly earlier this week, with one source saying “there is no scramble”.
However, the Opposition remained sceptical, with Sinn Féin’s Spokesperson on Finance Pearse Doherty telling the Dáil he believes the Government is “scrambling around like headless chickens”, and Labour’s Spokesperson on Housing Conor Sheehan accusing the Coalition of “creating housing policy on the back of an envelope”.
Other concerns
The Punch and Judy nature of whether the plan to fast track the national rent pressure zone legislation was always the plan and was just not explained fully earlier in the week, or whether it is an example of political back-tracking, is not exactly unexpected.
Government and Opposition, of course, will always find a reason to disagree.
The potentially bigger problem for the plan though is that this is not the only part of it both sides of the political divide disagree on.
Among the Opposition concerns raised about the Government’s rent control plan is that it risks creating a two-tier rental system.
For people who are currently living in a rent pressure zone, their existing 2% rent cap will remain, while a six-year rental tenancy rule coupled with the no fault eviction ban will mean they will soon have a large degree of security.
However, for people who will be renting newly built apartments after 1 March next year – units which will not have a rent cap – this financial safety net for tenants will not exist, a situation Social Democrats Deputy Leader Cian O’Callaghan said this week was of concern.
Secondly, opposition parties have argued that while the six-year tenancy rule provides security during that period, once it runs out, landlords will in theory be able to realign their existing rental price to the market rate of the day, a situation People Before Profit TD Paul Murphy claimed this week could see a 2% annual increase suddenly jump to “30%, 40%”.
Thirdly, it has also been predicted that some landlords whose properties are currently empty may wait until 1 March next year before advertising the property, as moving someone in now would mean they would be locked into a 2% annual rate, whereas waiting until next spring would allow a new tenancy to be based on the potentially higher market rate.
That in turn, Labour’s Conor Sheehan has argued, could also see a drop-off in available rental properties between now and next March, a situation which could cause short-term problems.
And fourthly, as was noted by Mary Lou McDonald, the rental plan also potentially poses a big problem for students renting off-campus.
This is because it is likely they will leave various tenancies voluntarily during their time in college, meaning they will not have the rent cap protection of a six-year tenancy and will instead face market rate payments as a newly signed up tenant, potentially multiple times.
These are concerns that the Government has said are either over-blown, resolvable, or simply imaginary – with the most firm rejection of the concerns coming from Taoiseach Micheál Martin.
Speaking in the Dáil, the Taoiseach said the plans “are probably the strongest set of rent protection measures we’ve ever had in the history of the State”, before turning his aim on Sinn Féin.
“There comes a stage where Deputy McDonald needs to start proposing solutions, because supply is the bottom line here,” he said.
“This is a balanced package of measures which protects existing tenants but gives policy certainty to them, and also gives policy certainty to investment and to investors, which is required to dramatically increase the supply of housing and apartments to the country, to get from 30,000 to 50,000 per annum for a sustained period of time.
“I see nothing in anything the deputy has proposed that would go anywhere near trying to attempt to increase supply of apartments and supply of housing,” the Taoiseach said.
Wider housing plans
It should not be forgotten, of course, that the rent control plans announced this week are not the only housing policy the Government has announced to address the housing crisis – all of which, the Coalition says, need to be seen as part of a connected web.
Earlier this year, Fine Gael’s junior minister at the Department of Housing John Cummins outlined plans for a relaxing of planning exemptions for modular and cabin-style homes, primarily in people’s back gardens.
At the time of the initial announcement in February, Deputy Cummins said it may allow for “inter-generational movement” and allow young people and older relatives to live “independently” while still being supported.
However, amid opposition criticism, he acknowledged it was “not a panacea” for the housing crisis by itself, and would only suit “certain circumstances”.
Read more:
Why the Government has little choice on rent cap reform
Certainty in short supply as Government reveals rent plan
Fraught days ahead for Government with planned changes to RPZs
Two months later, the Minister for Housing also outlined plans to address short-term letting by Airbnb and other companies in Ireland, a situation he said with some justification could free up thousands of homes for the rental sector.
The General Scheme of the Short Term Letting and Tourism Bill includes plans for a new register for all short-term lets in Ireland next year, but is not yet in place.
The housing tsar controversy means the Housing Activation Office to speed up new builds by finding ways to reduce red tape safely when it comes to issues like water and electricity supply is also being established.
The Cabinet also this week discussed plans to allow the Land Development Agency to purchase more private land and build more private housing projects in order to help meet housing completion targets.
And, while it has not yet been published, the Government’s long-awaited update to the 2021 Housing for All plan is due to be published next month – a document the Coalition says will help tie everything together, but which the Opposition fear may not be revealed until after the Dáil rises for its summer recess in mid-July.
Sunshine and showers
Whatever the eventual outcome of that growing mountain of housing policies, the latest of which was the national rent control plan this week, though, ultimately responsibility all comes back to one man.
After the latest in a long list of even longer weeks, James Browne may be taking this weekend to survey the positives and negative political forecasts of the past few days.
Sunshine will come once we get through the storm, says the Government.
Prepare for more showers, say the Opposition.
As the clouds break after another Dáil criticism deluge, what it all means for renters and increasingly a certain Minister for housing is as unpredictable as the Irish weather.
