Guess Stock (NYSE: GES) is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, May 29, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of -69 cents per share on $631 million in revenue. This would compare to the prior year’s figures of -24 cents per share and $592 million in revenue. Historically, GES stock has increased 63% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day rise of 10.3% and a maximum observed increase of 26%.
The company is seeing challenges in the Americas segment, elevated inventory levels, and heavy markdowns—all of which have weighed on the company’s profitability. Broader market volatility, fueled by tariff policies under the Trump administration, and escalating trade tensions, have further pressured the stock this year. While the company’s acquisition of Rag & Bone is helping boost revenue, profits have taken a sharp hit. Guess is reassessing its strategy in China, moving from direct operations toward a potential partnership with an experienced local firm. In North America, the company plans to close around 20 underperforming stores amid ongoing declines in foot traffic, part of a broader effort to streamline its retail footprint. The company has $574 Mil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $3.0 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $173 Mil in operating profits and net income of $60 Mil. Also see, Buy or Sell Guess Stock?
For event-driven traders, historical patterns may offer an edge, whether by positioning ahead of earnings or reacting to post-release moves. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than from individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
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Guess’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 7 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 63% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 10%, and median of the 7 negative returns = -5.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
GES Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Guess? stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Guess?. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
