Nutanix (NASDAQ:NTNX), a company that provides cloud computing software for data centers and hybrid multi-cloud environments, is scheduled to announce its earnings on Wednesday, May 28, 2025. This event often brings significant stock volatility, as evidenced by historical data. Over the past five years, Nutanix stock has seen a positive one-day return in 60% of instances following earnings releases. The median positive one-day return was 9.9%, with a maximum gain of 29.2%, highlighting the stock’s sensitivity to earnings news.
For event-driven traders, historical patterns can offer an edge, though much depends on how the actual results compare to consensus estimates. There are two primary approaches to consider:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Analyze historical probabilities and take a position before the earnings release.
- Post-Earnings Positioning: Examine the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns after the earnings are released to inform your trading decisions.
Analysts project Nutanix to report earnings of $0.38 per share on revenue of $627 million for the upcoming announcement. This compares to earnings of $0.28 per share on sales of $525 million in the same quarter last year. Fundamentally, Nutanix has a current market capitalization of $21 billion. Over the last twelve months, the company generated $2.3 billion in revenue and was operationally profitable with $69 million in operating profits, despite a net loss of $55 million. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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Nutanix’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 73% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 9.9%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -8.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
NTNX 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
NTNX Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Nutanix stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Nutanix. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
NTNX Correlation With Peer Earnings
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
