Obesity drug maker Novo Nordisk has forecast slower growth this year after Wegovy sales more than doubled in the final quarter of 2024, with analysts and investors describing the results as “good enough” to ease nerves about stiff competition from rival Eli Lilly.
The Danish company said it expects sales growth in local currencies to range between 16% and 24% in 2025, less than the 26% growth seen in 2024. That compares with analysts expectations of just under 20%.
Its shares rose 4.3% today on Copenhagen’s stock exchange after fourth-quarter earnings came in above forecasts on Wednesday.
Barclays analysts said in a note they were breathing a sigh of relief, describing the results and guidance as “good enough”.
Investors were worried ahead of the results about potentially slowing demand for obesity drugs in the US.
US rival Eli Lilly last month forecast fourth-quarter sales of weight-loss drug Zepbound below Wall Street estimates, leading the stock to fall 8%. The shares have since recovered.
“We see an intact strong demand for obesity treatments in the US and elsewhere,” Novo’s CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen told journalists on a call.
Lukas Leu, fund manager at healthcare-focused Bellevue Asset Management in Switzerland, which holds Novo shares, told Reuters that the 2025 sales growth outlook was “very wide”.
“The mid-point (of the range) is reassuring but the wide guidance doesn’t help,” he said.
Novo Nordisk, the first-mover in an obesity drug market that some analysts forecast could be worth about $150 billion by the early 2030s, is facing fierce competition from Lilly.
Novo lost out to Lilly in the fourth quarter in terms of total weekly prescriptions written for Wegovy compared to Lilly’s Zepbound in the US, the biggest market.
Novo shareholder, Markus Manns, portfolio manager at mutual funds firm Union Investment, said he thought the fourth-quarter results were “good enough”.
Novo said fourth-quarter operating profit jumped 37% to 36.7 billion Danish crowns ($5.12 billion), better than the 33.6 billion forecast by analysts in a company poll.
It predicted operating profit for 2025 to climb between 19% and 27%, compared to growth of 26% last year.
Sales of Wegovy more than doubled in the fourth quarter to 19.9 billion crowns from 9.6 billion a year ago, in line with expectations and more than the 17.3 billion crowns achieved in the third quarter.
