The fact that Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plan received a near universal chorus of disapproval internationally would not have been much of a surprise to the US President or his team. If anything, opposition from the countries that had – in their minds – been ripping the US off for so many years only meant the plan would work.
But if there was one voice among that chorus that would have made Trump & Co rethink their approach, it probably would have been an Irish one. But not one from Government circles.
Ryanair is Europe’s biggest airline by a number of metrics – highlighted by the fact that it flew 200 million passengers last year. And the backbone of its business is Boeing, with the American firm’s planes representing 96% of its fleet – with that proportion growing by the month.
Its size, and its reliance on Boeing, also means it is one of the company’s biggest customers. That status was cemented in 2023, when Ryanair agreed to buy up to 300 Boeing planes over the following decade in a deal that was worth, on paper at least, around $40 billion (though Ryanair will pay a lot less than that in reality).
So, when Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary told US politicians earlier this month that the country’s “ill-judged” tariff plan could make it cancel its Boeing orders in favour of a Chinese rival, those in power were sure to take note. After all Boeing is an example of the kind of all-American manufacturing that the Trump Administration says it wants more of – it would be an embarrassment if its policies led to its order book taking a significant hit. And the potential that it could lose business to China of all places would be like rubbing salt in the wounds.
Where would Ryanair even buy the planes from?
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When O’Leary talks about China, he’s talking about a company called Comac – or the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China – which is a fast-growing aircraft-manufacturer.
It was only established in 2008 – so very young in aviation terms. Europe’s Airbus was established in the 1970s, for example. America’s Boeing can trace its origins all the way back to the 1910s. Brazil’s Embraer, which is much smaller than those two, dates back to the late 1960s.
There is an incredibly high barrier for a new company to break into aviation – as it requires deep pockets and high-end engineering know-how. Despite that Comac has been making impressive progress in its 17 years of existence, and today has more than one thousand orders on its books (though they are almost entirely from Chinese airlines).
And its popularity comes despite the fact that it only has two models of plane in operation right now. One, the C909, is a smaller jet carrying around 70 to 80 passengers – something similar in size to the planes used by Aer Lingus Regional.
Then there’s the C919 – which is the most relevant one when it comes to the threat to Airbus and Boeing. Because that model is comparable to the likes of the Airbus A220neo, which Aer Lingus uses, and the Boeing 737 MAX that Ryanair uses. In fact Ryanair played an important role in the C919’s creation, because signed a co-operation agreement with Comac all the way back in 2011 to help in its development.
So this could realistically be a plane that Ryanair might be interested in?
Absolutely. It’s the right size for their fleet – and Comac says it’s currently working on variants that will allow for more seats to be fit in, which would make it even more attractive to the Ryanair business model. And if Ryanair has been involved in its development over the past decade or so, you would imagine it ticks the boxes for them in terms of the other requirements they would have.
Another benefit is that the catalogue price of a C919 is around $9.9m – which is about $6m below the Boeing 737 ‘NextGen’, which currently makes up the bulk of Ryanair’s fleet. (Although it should be said that the catalogue price of a new aircraft doesn’t tell you much about the actual cost to an airline – because they would do deals with manufacturers, and negotiate bulk order discounts on the list price).
And price is very important for Ryanair. In an interview with travel website Skift in March, O’Leary said he didn’t care who made their planes – if it was cheap enough, they’d order it.
But while the plane – and the price – may be right, there are a couple of pretty crucial hurdles in the way that mean that Ryanair’s threat of switching aircraft supplier is not a serious one just yet.
What’s the biggest hurdle?
The only Comac planes that are currently in operation are in or near China – as it stands, its planes are not licensed to fly in European airspace. That is a pretty crucial first step to it being a serious option for Ryanair.
Comac has been working with the European Union’s aviation safety agency – EASA – for a number of years now in order to secure that certification, and had previously said it hoped to have it in place this year – but clearly it was being overly ambitious with that aim.
Just last month EASA’s executive director Florian Guillermet said that it would be three to six years before the C919 is certified by European authorities. So not until 2028 at best – but possibly as late as 2031.
In terms of why it takes so long, regulators – particularly in Europe – understandably have very high standards when it comes to aviation safety. That’s especially true in civil aviation – and if anything they’ve have gotten more rigorous following the numerous crashes and incidents in other jurisdictions involving Boeing 737 Max aircraft.
And the process is particularly challenging when it’s effectively a new aircraft manufacturer with a new type of plane – because there’s no historical relationship between the regulator and the manufacturer. There’s also not much real world data to look at, or baseline to compare this model to – unlike when it’s a variant of a plane that’s already been approved.
For comparison sake you can go back to Airbus’ A220, which was approved to fly by EASA in 2015. But that was two years after the plane type took its maiden flight, and that’s in a situation where the plane-maker was very familiar with the regulator and their process, and had a solid and long-standing reputation in the industry.
And the problem for Comac is that aircraft leasing companies and airlines – including Ryanair – are going to be reluctant to order planes from them until they know they are going to get the thumbs up by regulators here, and when that will happen.
When that happens, could Comac planes arrive in Europe straight away?
Potentially but probably not – there’s often a significant gap between a deal being agreed with an airline and the planes being received.
Because it’s not like Boeing or Airbus or Comac have a stockpile of planes – they’re not going to spend tens of millions building a plane that doesn’t have a buyer locked in, And airlines will also want the planes customised to their needs in terms of the seating layout, lighting, whether there’s in-flight entertainment systems and so on. Not to mention adding the airline’s branding scheme inside and out.
So if you’re an airline waiting for Comac to have – or be very close to having – approval from EASA before you’re willing to put pen to paper and make a deal, they you’re going to be waiting for another while after 2031 before you’re actually welcoming passengers on board your C919.
And this is where Michael O’Leary’s threat of canceling its Boeing orders and turning to Comac starts to look a bit toothless.
Because the most recent deal Ryanair did with Boeing was in 2023 – and it saw the airline agree to buy up to 300 Boeing 737 MAX 10s over the next decade… so by 2033.
Under that timeline there’s the very realistic chance that, by the time it’s feasible for Ryanair to get planes from Comac, it will have taken delivery of most or all of the Boeing jets that are on the order books at the moment.
So there wouldn’t be much, or anything, left to cancel.
So maybe it’s the next big order that Ryanair might take elsewhere?
Potentially, yes. Though, again, the timing may be less than ideal for them because they may need to be ordering more planes well in advance of the end of the current Boeing deal in order to ensure they arrive on time (and that might be before they’re sure they can fly a C919 in Europe).
And this is also working on the assumption that Comac would be able to deliver on a big order from the likes of Ryanair.
One of the big issues that both Boeing and Airbus have faced in recent years is a production line bottleneck – with the two manufacturers facing separate issues in their supply chaina that has made it hard for them to keep up with demand.
Last year Airbus delivered around 760 planes – but it has orders on the books for more than 8,600. Boeing, meanwhile, delivered around 350 planes, but has orders for close to 5,600 planes.
Comac, meanwhile, has around 1,000 plane orders on its books – but last it only delivered 12 planes to customers.
So it would need to dramatically expand its production capacity very, very quickly in order to be able to manage any decent-sized order from a European carrier.
And bear in mind that while China and Comac are keen to expand into other markets, the core aim is also clearly to reduce the Chinese aviation industry’s reliance on European and (especially) American manufacturers. So even if Comac does ramp up production, the likes of Ryanair would have to join the queue along with all of the Chinese airlines that are already ordering and flying Comac jets.
Those hurdles aside, how significant would it be if Ryanair started using Comac?
It would be a significant moment for the European and even global aviation industry. Ryanair is Europe’s biggest airline and if it was turning to a Chinese plane maker it would be a major shot across the bows for Boeing and Airbus. It would be seen as a major threat to two major manufacturers, and add to the ongoing debate about America and Europe’s ever-growing dependence on Chinese production.
It would also represent a significant vote of confidence for Comac – and you’d imagine they’d be able to use a Ryanair endorsement to secure sales with other airlines.
But it would also be a significant change for Ryanair itself. It made a decision in the mid-90s to transition its fleet entirely towards Boeing as part of its low-cost model. Because having one plane-maker means they can get a better deal on the bulk orders on new planes, for a start. It also means pilots and cabin crew don’t have to be trained on multiple systems, which saves money and makes rosters far more flexible. Meanwhile it makes it easier to standardise every aspect of your process – and simplifies maintenance and repairs procedures.
If Ryanair were to bring in a new plane-type by a different manufacturer, it would add a layer of complication to its model that hasn’t existed since O’Leary became CEO in 1994.
Now it’s not necessarily a deal-breaker – there are other airlines that fly multiple manufacturers, including British Airways and Lufthansa. In a way Ryanair Group does a little bit of it, too, because its Lauda subsidiary still uses Airbus planes. Even there, though, there have been signs that it was looking to move that fleet over to Boeing at some stage in the future.
So why did O’Leary fly the kite of buying Chinese planes?
Money, basically.
Ryanair never misses an opportunity to save money and put pressure on suppliers to cut prices.
In that interview with Skift he said that Ryanair is “always focused on buying aircraft at the lowest possible price and at the most opportune time.”
And talking up the competition has always been a big part of their approach in ensuring they do just that.
Back in 2009 when Ryanair was locked in tough negotiations with Boeing about a new order of planes, they put it out there that they were also in talks with Airbus. But a senior executive at Airbus quickly came out and said that no talks were taking place.
Those talks with Boeing ultimately broke down – and in a way that led to Ryanair signing its 2011 co-operation agreement with Comac. It eventually did a deal with the US manufacturer in 2014.
Fast-forward to 2023, before they agreed their latest blockbuster deal with Boeing, O’Leary again claimed that they were talking with Airbus, and said the European manufacturer was being very aggressive with their pricing offer.
In fairness to Ryanair this time around, though, what it’s actually trying to do here is to ensure it only has to pay what was negotiated and agreed two years ago.
Ryanair’s attitude is that they agreed a price for their planes and any costs that might crop up in the meantime – like tariffs – isn’t their problem. They believe that the US needs to find a way to avoid adding tariffs to planes in the first place, or else Boeing needs to find a way to absorb the tariff that is applied.
And talking about using Comac is an attempt to put pressure on both parties to come around to a similar point or view.
So Boeing doesn’t have to worry about losing Ryanair as a customer?
Not right now – but they wouldn’t want to get too complacent either.
Ryanair has repeatedly been critical of standards at Boeing in the wake of its recent safety issues. It’s also clearly been very frustrated by the delays in aircraft deliveries – citing delays to aircraft deliveries as the reason why its growth will be slower than hoped this year.
So Boeing is already costing them money – even aside from any issues around tariffs.
If there isn’t an improvement in that over the course of the next few years and if, crucially, Comac can offer a usable plane for a good price, there is the potential scenario where they’re a serious contender the next time Ryanair is in the plane market.
It’s unlikely they would dive straight into a major deal for hundreds of planes, mind you. They are more likely to start small.
Their Lauda subsidiary could offer a perfect proving ground for Comac as the lease on its fleet of 26 Airbuses expires in 2028… potentially just as the C919 comes to Europe. Maybe at that point Ryanair might start to swap over the Lauda fleet to Comac – which could act as a relatively small, self-contained experiment for the bigger group.
And while Comac’s production currently isn’t anywhere near where it needs to be to handle the likes of Ryanair right now, we know from past experience how quickly that can change when it comes to Chinese companies. If the Chinese state decides this is an area it wants to grow, the resources will be found to make that happen very quickly. And its companies are very good at rapidly getting up to speed with the competition, and likely doing so for cheaper too.
We saw that happen with solar panel production – we’re seeing it happen now with electric vehicle production.
So while Airbus and Boeing might be the two big players right now it might not take long – perhaps even within the decade – where that duopoly’s dominance begins to come under threat.
