Smurfit Westrock targets 40% rise in core profit by 2030

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Cardboard box maker Smurfit Westrock aims to grow its full-year core profit to $7 billion by 2030 from just under $5 billion last year, a goal it said hinged on maximising the potential of its North American business.

The world’s biggest cardboard box maker reported full-year adjusted core earnings (EBITDA) for 2025 of $4.94 billion, at the lower end of a $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion range that was revised down in October due to weak North American demand.

The Ireland-headquartered company said an 8% fall in fourth-quarter core profit in North America reflected its planned reduction in output there late last year.

It said it also cut last year over 3,000 of the around 100,000 staff employed at the end of 2024 and exceeded the $400m pretax cost savings targeted in the 2024 $11-billion merger of European-focussed Smurfit Kappa with US rival WestRock.

So far in 2026, Smurfit Westrock said it saw a “generally better industry operating environment” and forecast full-year core profit rising to between $5 billion and $5.3 billion.

“We are focused on unlocking the full potential of North America, while continuing to outperform in EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa) and APAC (Asia-Pacific) and delivering dynamic growth and strong margins in Latin America,” chief executive Tony Smurfit said on the 2030 target.

The target includes boosting profits in its largest market of North America to $4.2 billion from $3 billion.

The goal – which assumes market growth of between 1.6% and 2% in North America, Europe and Latin America – should allow it to return around $5 billion to investors over the next five years via a progressive dividend policy, alongside the capacity for additional share buybacks from 2027, Smurfit Westrock said.

Smurfit added that the company had ended most of the US loss-making contracts inherited from WestRock, and changed the way those sales staff can target more profitable business.

“We allow our salespeople to entertain our customers, make sure that they can buy them a drink. Nothing was allowed to be done before (at WestRock),” he told investors.

The company today reported net sales of $31.179 billion for the year to end of December, up from $21.109 billion the previous year.

It said its operating profits for the year rose to $1.719 billion from $1.007 billion, while its net income increased to $699m from $319m in 2024.

The Smurfit Westrock board has approved a quarterly dividend of $0.4523 per share on its ordinary shares.

Smurfit Westrock said that in its EMEA and APAC region, its strong market positions again delivered an “outstanding” performance in the fourth quarter of 2025.

“We continue to believe that our business within this region is optimally positioned for a strong, future recovery,” it stated.

In its North America region, Smurfit Westrock said its performance in the quarter reflects the impact of additional downtime taken to balance its system and actively manage working capital.

“As we continue to transition to a value-based selling approach, our corrugated businesses are already achieving a better business mix and are winning significant new business, setting a strong platform for the future,” it said.

Meanwhile, it said the performance of its LATAM region reflects the strength of its market positions and the benefits of growth projects already completed.

“LATAM continues to be a region of significant growth and opportunity,” it added.

Tony Smurfit, the president and chief executive of Smurfit Westrock said the company made significant progress in establishing a performance-led culture, optimising its operating model, and adopting a sharper, customer-centric focus last year.

“With regard to current trading, while we have experienced significant weather events in North America and Europe, we see a generally better industry operating environment, which positions us well for continued performance in 2026,” the CEO said.

“For the first quarter, we currently expect to deliver Adjusted EBITDA of between $1.1 billion and $1.2 billion and for the full year, we currently expect to deliver Adjusted EBITDA of between $5 billion and $5.3 billion,” he added.

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