October Nymex natural gas (NGV25) on Wednesday closed up +0.005 (+0.18%).
Oct nat-gas prices settled slightly higher on Wednesday. Forecasts for warmer US weather, which will boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to run air conditioning, are supporting nat-gas prices. Forecaster Atmospheric G2 said on Wednesday that forecasts shifted warmer across the central and northern US for September 29-October 3, and shifted warmer for most of the country for October 4-8.
Don’t Miss a Day: From crude oil to coffee, sign up free for Barchart’s best-in-class commodity analysis.
Ample US nat-gas supplies are a bearish factor for prices. As of September 12, US nat-gas inventories were +6.3% above their 5-year seasonal average, a sign of abundant supplies.
Higher US nat-gas production has recently been a bearish factor for prices. Earlier this month, the EIA raised its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +0.2% to 106.63 bcf/day from August's estimate of 106.40 bcf/day. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
US (lower-48) dry gas production on Wednesday was 108.0 bcf/day (+5.6% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Wednesday was 75.8 bcf/day (+2.1% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Wednesday were 15.5 bcf/day (-0.6% w/w), according to BNEF.
As a supportive factor for gas prices, the Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended September 20 rose +2.3% y/y to 85,663 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending September 20 rose +2.85% y/y to 4,267,164 GWh.
The consensus is that Thursday's weekly EIA nat-gas inventories rose +74 bcf for the week ended September 19, just below the five-year average of +76 bcf.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended September 12 rose +90 bcf, above the market consensus of +81 bcf and above the 5-year weekly average of +74 bcf. As of September 12, nat-gas inventories were down -0.3% y/y, but were +6.3% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of September 21, gas storage in Europe was 82% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 88% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending September 19 was unchanged at 118 rigs, slightly below the 2-year high of 124 rigs posted on August 1. In the past year, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4.5-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
More news from Barchart
- What Our Top Chart Strategist is Watching on the Natural Gas Futures Charts Now
- Where are Natural Gas Prices Heading?
- Energy Commodities in Q2- Where are they Heading in Q3?
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
