China’s export growth slowed to a three-month low in May as US tariffs slammed shipments, while factory-gate deflation deepened to its worst level in two years, heaping pressure on the world’s second-largest economy on both the domestic and external fronts.
US President Donald Trump’s global trade war and the swings in Sino-US trade ties have in the past two months sent Chinese exporters, along with their business partners across the Pacific, on a roller coaster ride and hobbled world growth.
Underscoring the US tariff impact on shipments, customs data showed that China’s exports to the US plunged 34.5% year-on-year in May in value terms, the sharpest drop since February 2020, when the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic upended global trade.
Total exports from the Asian economic giant expanded 4.8% year-on-year in value terms in May, slowing from the 8.1% jump in April and missing the 5.0% growth expected in a Reuters poll, customs data showed on Monday, despite a lowering of US tariffs on Chinese goods which had taken effect in early April.
Imports dropped 3.4% year-on-year, deepening sharply from the 0.2% decline in April and worse than the 0.9% downturn expected in the Reuters poll.
Exports had surged 12.4% year-on-year and 8.1% in March andApril, respectively, as factories rushed shipments to the U.S.and other overseas manufacturers to avoid Trump’s hefty levieson China and the rest of the world.
While exporters in China found some respite in May as Beijing and Washington agreed to suspend most of their levies for 90 days, tensions between the world’s two largest economies remain high and negotiations are underway over issues ranging from China’s rare earths controls to Taiwan.
Trade representatives from China and the US are meeting in London on Monday to resume talks after a phone call between their top leaders on Thursday.
“Export growth was likely stalled by heavy customs inspections in May due to tightened export control efforts,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, noting that rare earth exports nearly halved last month, while electric machinery exports also slowed significantly.
China’s imports from the US also lost further ground, dropping 18.1% from a 13.8% slide in April.
Zichun Huang, economist at Capital Economics, expects the slowdown in exports growth to “partially reverse this month, as it reflects the drop in US orders before the trade truce,” but cautions that shipments will be knocked again by year-end due to elevated tariff levels.
China’s May trade surplus came in at $103.22 billion, up from the $96.18 billion the previous month.
Other data, also released on Monday, showed China’s import of crude oil, coal, and iron ore dropped last month, underlining the fragility of domestic demand at a time of rising external headwinds.
Beijing in May rolled out a series of monetary stimulus measures, including cuts to benchmark lending rates and a 500 billion yuan low-cost loan program for supporting elderly care and services consumption.
The measures are aimed at cushioning the trade war’s blow to an economy that relied on exports in its recovery from the pandemic shocks and a protracted property market slump.
China’s markets showed muted reaction to the data. The blue-chip CSI300 Index and the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index were up around 0.2%.
