The TJX Companies stock (NYSE: TJX) is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, May 21, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of 91 cents per share on $13 billion in revenue. This would represent a 2% year-over-year decline in earnings and a 4% growth in sales compared to the prior year’s figures of 93 cents per share and $12.5 billion in revenue. Historically, TJX stock has increased 70% of the time following earnings announcements, with a median one-day rise of 3.8% and a maximum observed increase of 7%.
The parent company of T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, and HomeGoods has experienced significant growth in recent years, consistently capturing market share from traditional department stores as consumers increasingly seek value-driven shopping experiences. This trend has been further accelerated by persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and an uncertain economic outlook. Additionally, the company noted that imports from China represent only a small portion of its supply chain, potentially mitigating certain trade-related risks. Currently, TJX holds a market capitalization of approximately $150 billion. Over the past twelve months, it reported $56 billion in revenue, with $6.5 billion in operating income, and $4.9 billion in net earnings.
For event-driven traders, historical patterns may offer an edge, whether by positioning ahead of earnings or reacting to post-release moves. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than from individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
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TJX Companies’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 14 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 70% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 82% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 14 positive returns = 3.8%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -3.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
TJX Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
