Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK), a software company specializing in design and digital creation tools, is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, May 22, 2025. An analysis of the past five years reveals a balanced historical pattern: the stock experienced a positive one-day return following earnings announcements in 50% of cases (with a median of 1.7% and a maximum of 10.3%), and a negative one-day return in the other 50% of cases (with a median of -6.3% and a maximum of -15.5%). This suggests an equal likelihood of the stock rising or falling on the day after earnings.
For event-driven traders, while the near-term direction appears uncertain based on this historical split, understanding these patterns can still offer potential advantages. The actual market reaction will, of course, heavily depend on how the reported results compare to consensus estimates and market expectations. There are two primary strategies to consider:
- Pre-Earnings Positioning: Analyze the historical probabilities of positive and negative reactions and establish a position before the earnings release, acknowledging the even odds.
- Post-Earnings Positioning: Examine the correlation between the immediate market response to the earnings and the subsequent medium-term stock performance, then position your trades accordingly after the announcement.
Currently, consensus estimates project Autodesk to report sales of $1.61 billion and earnings per share of $2.15 for the upcoming quarter. This represents an increase compared to the same quarter last year, where the company reported sales of $1.42 billion and earnings per share of $1.87.
From a fundamental perspective, Autodesk currently has a market capitalization of $64 billion. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $6.1 billion in revenue, achieving an operating profit of $1.4 billion and a net income of $1.1 billion. In addition, see – Buy or Sell Autodesk Stock.
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Autodesk’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 10 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 50% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 58% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 10 positive returns = 1.7%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -6.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
ADSK 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
ADSK Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Autodesk stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Autodesk. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
ADSK Correlation With Peer Earnings
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
