Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), a financial technology platform, is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, May 22, 2025. An analysis of the past five years shows that Intuit’s stock has experienced a positive one-day return following its earnings announcements in 69% of cases. These positive returns have had a median of 2.2% and a maximum of 12.6%.
For event-driven traders, these historical patterns can offer a potential advantage, although the actual market reaction will largely depend on how the reported results compare to consensus estimates and market expectations. There are two primary strategies to potentially leverage this historical data:
- Pre-Earnings Strategy: Understand the historical probability of a positive reaction and establish a position before the earnings release.
- Post-Earnings Strategy: Analyze the correlation between the immediate market response to the earnings and the subsequent medium-term stock performance, and then position your trades accordingly after the announcement.
Currently, consensus estimates project Intuit to report earnings per share of $10.91 on revenues of $7.56 billion for the upcoming quarter. This compares to the same quarter last year, where the company reported earnings per share of $9.88 on revenues of $6.74 billion.
From a fundamental perspective, Intuit currently has a market capitalization of $188 billion. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $17 billion in revenue, achieving an operating profit of $4.1 billion and a net income of $3.0 billion. In addition, see – Buy or Sell Intuit Stock.
That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative — having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception.
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Intuit’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 16 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 5 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 69% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 67% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 2.2%, and median of the 5 negative returns = -3.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
INTU 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
INTU Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Intuit stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Intuit. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
INTU Correlation With Peer Earnings
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
