Sirius XM Holdings stock (NASDAQ: SIRI) declined 7% year-to-date, in line with the broader market downturn, as the S&P 500 also dropped 7%. The company reported Q1 earnings per share of $0.59, representing a 6% year-over-year (y-o-y) decline and falling short of analyst expectations of $0.67. Revenue for the quarter was $2.07 billion, down 4% y-o-y and slightly below the projected $2.08 billion. SiriusXM continues to undergo a strategic transition, focusing on cost optimization and digital audio growth amid ongoing subscriber attrition. The company has made notable progress in its cost reduction efforts, with total operating expenses down 4% y-o-y. The most significant reductions were seen in Sales & Marketing (down 19%) and Product & Technology (down 15%), reflecting a clear emphasis on operational efficiency. On the subscriber front, self-pay subscriptions fell 1% y-o-y to approximately 31.34 million, though this decline marked a 16% improvement compared to the first quarter of 2024. However, paid promotional subscribers and paid accounts in Canada declined by a combined total of 439,000.
SIRI stock looks unattractive – making it a bad pick to buy at its current price of around $21. We believe there are a couple of concerns with SIRI stock, which makes it relatively unattractive, despite that its current valuation looks very low. We arrive at our conclusion by comparing the current valuation of SIRI stock with its operating performance over the recent years, as well as its current and historical financial condition. Our analysis of Sirius along key parameters of Growth, Profitability, Financial Stability, and Downturn Resilience shows that the company has a very weak operating performance and financial condition, as detailed below. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than individual stocks, the Trefis High-Quality portfolio presents an alternative – having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. 
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How does Sirius XM’s valuation look vs. the S&P 500?
Going by what you pay per dollar of sales or profit, SIRI stock looks cheap compared to the broader market.
• Sirius XM has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.9 vs. a figure of 2.8 for the S&P 500
• Additionally, the company’s price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 4.3 compared to 17.6 for S&P 500
How have Sirius XM’s revenues grown over recent years?
Sirius XM’s Revenues have seen a decline over recent years.
• Sirius XM’s top line has remained flat over the last 3 years (vs. increase of 6.2% for S&P 500)
• Its revenues have declined 2.8% from $9.0 Bil to $8.7 Bil in the last 12 months (vs. growth of 5.3% for S&P 500)
• Also, its quarterly revenues decreased 4.4% to $2.1 Bil in the most recent quarter from $2.1 Bil a year ago (vs. 4.9% improvement for S&P 500)
How profitable is SIRI?
Sirius XM’s profit margins are worse than most companies in the Trefis coverage universe.
• Sirius XM’s Operating Income over the last four quarters was $1.9 Bil, which represents a moderate Operating Margin of 22.3% (vs. 13.1% for S&P 500)
• Sirius XM’s Operating Cash Flow (OCF) over this period was $1.7 Bil, pointing to a moderate OCF Margin of 20.0% (vs. 15.7% for S&P 500)
• For the last four-quarter period, Sirius XM’s Net Income was $-1.7 Bil – indicating a very poor Net Income Margin of -19.1% (vs. 11.3% for S&P 500)
Does Sirius XM look financially stable?
Sirius XM’s balance sheet looks very weak.
• Sirius XM’s Debt figure was $10 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its market capitalization is $7.0 Bil (as of 5/2/2025). This implies a very poor Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 140.0% (vs. 21.5% for S&P 500). [Note: A lower Debt-to-Equity Ratio is desirable]
• Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $162 Mil of the $28 Bil in Total Assets for Sirius XM. This yields a very poor Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 0.6% (vs. 15.0% for S&P 500)
How resilient is SIRI stock during a downturn?
SIRI stock has fared worse than the benchmark S&P 500 index during some of the recent downturns. While investors have their fingers crossed for a soft landing by the U.S. economy, how bad can things get if there is another recession? Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash captures how key stocks fared during and after the last six market crashes.
Inflation Shock (2022)
• SIRI stock fell 49.6% from a high of $67.80 on 12 August 2022 to $34.20 on 9 May 2023, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 20 July 2023
• Since then, the stock has increased to a high of $78.10 on 20 July 2023 and currently trades at around $20
Covid Pandemic (2020)
• SIRI stock fell 39.5% from a high of $73.40 on 20 February 2020 to $44.40 on 20 March 2020, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 20 July 2023
Global Financial Crisis (2008)
• SIRI stock fell 98.7% from a high of $41.50 on 16 January 2007 to $0.55 on 11 February 2009, vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500
• The stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 4 November 2015
Putting all the pieces together: What it means for SIRI stock
In summary, Sirius XM’s performance across the parameters detailed above are as follows:
• Growth: Weak
• Profitability: Weak
• Financial Stability: Extremely Weak
• Downturn Resilience: Very Weak
• Overall: Very Weak
Based on the above parameters and keeping in mind the company’s very low valuation, we think that the stock is unattractive, which supports our conclusion that SIRI is a bad stock to buy.
While you would do well to avoid SIRI stock for now, you could explore the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to produce strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mix of large-, mid- and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks provided a responsive way to make the most of upbeat market conditions while limiting losses when markets head south, as detailed in RV Portfolio performance metrics.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
