ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is scheduled to release its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Thursday, May 8, 2025, with analysts projecting earnings of $2.05 per share on $15.91 billion in revenue. This would represent a 1% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings and a 15% increase in sales compared to the prior year’s figures of $2.03 per share and $13.79 billion in revenue. Historically, COP stock has shown a tendency to underperform following earnings announcements, having declined 58% of the time with a median one-day drop of 1.6% and a maximum observed decline of 6%.
ConocoPhillips has strategically repositioned itself as a low-cost oil producer by divesting high-cost assets and redeploying capital into more efficient, lower-cost resources. This transformation culminated in the $22.5 billion acquisition of Marathon Oil, which added over two billion barrels of oil and gas reserves. The acquisition further strengthened ConocoPhillips’ resource base, now exceeding 20 billion barrels with an average supply cost of $32 per barrel.
While global economic uncertainty persists amid ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and key partners, ConocoPhillips remains financially resilient. The company expects to generate sufficient cash flow to fund its $12.9 billion capital investment plan for sustaining and growing production in the current year. With a market capitalization of $111 billion, the company reported $55 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, along with $13 billion in operating profit and $9.2 billion in net income
For event-driven traders, historical patterns may offer an edge, whether by positioning ahead of earnings or reacting to post-release moves. That said, if you seek upside with lower volatility than from individual stocks, the Trefis High Quality portfolio presents an alternative, having outperformed the S&P 500 and generated returns exceeding 91% since its inception. See earnings reaction history of all stocks.
Photo by kristinakasp on Pixabay
ConocoPhillips’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 1.8%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -1.6%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D), and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on 5-year and 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
COP Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
Learn more about Trefis RV strategy that has outperformed its all-cap stocks benchmark (combination of all 3, the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000), to produce strong returns for investors.
Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
